上半年三面夾攻‧馬股下半年看權力轉移

（吉隆坡）2008年大馬股市因政治海嘯元氣大傷，儘管政治氣候顯著降溫，但領導層權力交接將成為2009年下半年重頭大戲，惟一般相信，權力轉移料不會如過往般帶來25至30%的漲潮。

與此同時，全球經濟與股市走疲、馬股估值過高、外資持股比重居高不下等3大衝擊，則料繼續干擾馬股上半年走勢。

聯昌研究相信，市場表現將尾隨經濟下半年回暖，馬股評級依舊“中和”，綜指年杪目標保持在1013點。

聯昌研究表示，雖然國陣自308後連續2次補選失利，而民聯開始將2011年砂拉越州選舉視為重大里程碑，但國內整體政治氣候顯著降溫，促使今年股市前景較去年來得樂觀。

3月巫統黨選
4月領導層交接

“民聯在砂州選舉取勝可能性不大，料不會導致中央政權易手，民聯領袖拿督斯里安華欲掌權恐等到2013年才有可能實現，目前投資者均把目光投放在3月的巫統黨選和4月的領導層交接。”


2009年下半年的關鍵主題是領導層權力交接，但預見此次交接將與過往有些不同，主要是5年前敦馬哈迪將權力轉交拿督斯里阿都拉時，馬股在6個月內走揚25至30%，並在隨後進一步攀升10至15%，但在全球金融海嘯步步為營，以及多數投資者搶佔巫統黨選前漲潮便車，權力交接漲潮料不顯著。

倍受矚目的拿督斯里納吉上台後，將對內閣等事項進行必要的改變，加上其巫統需要改變和逐步減少新經濟政策（NEP）限制言論仍未全面兌現，預期市場在下半年將在潛在利好消息支撐下廣泛反彈或緩步走揚。

不過，全球經濟和股市走疲、馬股估值相對昂貴以及外資持股比重仍高於20%，仍未回跌至1997/98年亞洲金融風暴的18至19%水平三大因素，將是引領股市在上半年走疲的主要催化因素。

根據過往熊市週期的15至17個月時間觸底，以及平均53%跌幅計算，相信馬股料在700點左右水平觸底，而第2季將是重回股市的最佳時機。

上半年高息抗跌
下半年復甦週期

鑒於全年股市起伏不定，聯昌建議投資者繼續謹遵“上半年抗跌，下半年週期”的投資策略，上半年鎖定抗跌的博彩、膠手套領域，以及高週息率的楊忠禮電力（YTLPOWR,6742,主板基建計劃組）和大眾銀行（PBBANK,1295,主板金融組），但下半年則應轉向投資高貝他週期領域，以趕搭復甦便車。

“去年表現糟糕的產業、種植和建築領域料是下半年反彈的主要受惠單位，其中建築業料在振興經濟措施主題支撐下快速復甦以緩衝經濟走疲，而產業和種植則料在年中緩步復甦，主要是動力依舊疲弱。”

經濟環境持續惡化，企業盈利表現也叫人憂心忡忡，其中以銀行領域為甚，主要是國家銀行大砍隔夜政策利率（OPR）75基點，令領域前景蒙上陰影；種植領域因原棕油料持續難企於現有高位，維持“減碼”評級。

聯昌研究今年首次巡迴推展會地點，除吉隆坡外、還包括香港和新加坡，超過104家資產管理公司的262位代表參與其中。





文取自星洲日报

富时隆综指注重股票流通率 成分股洗牌谁是赢家

分析员指出，当富时大马交易所吉隆坡综合指数（FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI，简称富时隆综指）开跑时，有望跻进成分股并成为大赢家的股项，预料包括名胜世界（Resorts，4715，主板贸服股）、杨忠礼电力（YTLPowr，6742，主板基建股），以及百盛控股（Parkson，5657，主板贸服股）。

大马交易所昨日宣布，将从今年7月6日起，以富时隆综指取代现有的综合指数（KLCI），而指数成分股也将从100只减少至30只。

侨丰研究指出，由于富时隆综指的成分股有可能会与现有的FBM30成分股相似，因此，该行将FBM30指数和综指的成分股作比较后，设法找出新指数制度推行后的大赢家。

在两者相较下，该行发现，最大赢家将会是名胜世界、杨忠礼电力和百盛控股。因为它们虽然是FBM30成分股的一份子，但并不是综指成分股之一。

相反的，国油相关股项，以及即将被剔除在成分股榜外的70家公司，可能将会成为输家。

“此外，大型银行股以及马电讯（TM，4863，主板贸服股）相关公司，在新综指中所占比重将会增加。反之，国油相关公司已经丹斯里阿南达克里斯南相关股项，所占的比重可能会因而减轻。”

赢家
●名胜世界、杨忠礼电力、百盛控股虽是FBM30的成分股之一，但不是综指的成分股，因此这3个股项将成为最大赢家。

●大型银行在综指中的比重将增加，其中包括大众银行（PbBank，1295，主板金融股）、马银行（Maybank，1155，主板金融股）和土著联昌控股（Commerz，1023，主板金融股）。

● 马电讯相关公司在综指中所占比重也有望增加。

输家
●无法跻身成为富时隆综指成分股的70只股项。

●在现有综指成分股中首30家公司中，金务大（Gamuda，5398，主板建筑股）、实达建筑（SPSetia，8664，主板产业股）和砂拉越电力（Sarawak，2356，主板贸服股），可能无法跻身富时隆综指成分股之一。

● 国油相关股项所占综指比重将减轻。

● 官联公司如国家能源（Tenaga，5347，主板贸服股）、南北大道（Plus，5052，主板贸服股）和马航（MAS，3786，主板贸服股），占综指的比重也可能会减少。

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 : IJM Land Bhd 怡保置地

Shareholders, management known for nurturing assets

No matter how cheap they get, how well they are organised or how good their landbank is, property stocks are far from the path of recovery.

IJM Land Bhd, which was formerly known as RB Land Bhd, is no different. Despite having completed a rationalisation exercise in 2008 and emerging as one of the largest property developers in the country in terms of asset size, the stock has not captured the imagination of investors.

The value of properties under IJM Properties Sdn Bhd, which had some prime land particularly in Kuala Lumpur and Penang, alone was RM1.6 billion in August 2008. At current prices, IJM Land's market capitalisation is more than RM750 million, which is less than half the value of IJM Properties' landbank. Valuation-wise, IJM Land is trading at half its net asset value of RM1.33.

The company has shareholders and management who are known for nurturing assets, giving minorities little reason to complain. IJM Corp Bhd, the construction giant, holds close to 70% of IJM Land. Another shareholder is Peco Homebuilders (M) Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GSIC) which has, under the rationalisation exercise, accepted IJM Land shares at RM2 each.

Even IJM Corp's entry cost into IJM Land is high. IJM Corp subscribed for the rights issue, which comes with warrants, at RM1.35 each. It sold some 60 million IJM Land warrants to its senior management at about 26 sen each. The exercise price for the conversion of the warrants is RM1.35.

At the time of writing, IJM Land was trading at 68 sen and the warrants at 19.5 sen — at a steep discount to the entry price of IJM Corp and GSIC into the company.
Considering that the major shareholders and senior management recently put their money in the stock at much higher prices than the market price, there is reason to believe there isn't much downside for the stock at prevailing prices.

In terms of landbank, IJM Land has some prime parcels that are being developed in Kuala Lumpur and Penang. It has a chunk of land in Seremban which came from a merger with RB Land and would probably see a slower take-up rate.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 : IOI Corp Bhd IOI集团

Blue chip worth accumulating during CPO downcycle

Certainly, the big fall in crude palm oil (CPO) prices does not augur well for IOI Corp Bhd's earnings in FY2009 ending June 30 and maybe even FY2010.

This, however, does not mean the plantation giant is not worth looking at. More­over, this is not the first downcycle IOI Corp has experienced — during a previous down­cycle, the group had remained profitable even when CPO was trading below RM800 per tonne. CPO is now hovering between RM1,500 and RM1,600 a tonne.

No doubt, soft CPO prices have put the small oil palm planters in dire straits. But as one of the more efficient players in the industry — with low production costs — IOI Corp is capable of surviving the current downcycle.

Also, the group's extensive downstream activities will act as a hedge against poor earnings upstream. The weak CPO prices mean lower raw material costs for IOI Corp's speciality fat and oil production operations. Downstream activities are expected to be the key earnings driver for IOI Corp in the CPO downcycle.

The company's strong fundamentals have been overshadowed by current bearish sentiments. The group's foreign exchange (forex) losses are also a concern. IOI Corp announced a realised forex loss of RM100.6 million and unrealised forex loss of RM212.2 million in 2008. Some analysts anticipate more such losses due to the US dollar holding firm against the ringgit and euro.

These worries have depressed IOI Corp's share price, which fell more than 50% in 2008. The counter closed at RM3.58 on Dec 30, 2008.

The current share price may appear expensive amidst expectations of shrinking plantation earnings and the soft property market.

The group is unlikely to surpass its record high earnings per share of 38.65 sen posted in FY2008, but it will be the blue chip to accumulate should its share price weaken further. Being a leading player, IOI Corp's share price will be the first to surge when the next CPO upcycle comes, with investors willing to pay a premium for the stock.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 : Nestlé 雀巢

Tight cost control stands company in good stead

Consumer products stalwart Nestlé (M) Bhd remains a company to watch this year due to the stable earnings growth it offers investors. With its established portfolio of brands, including long-time favourites Milo and Maggi, and its ability to pass on costs to consumers, the company's earnings are expected to remain resilient.

Going forward, Nestlé's export segment is another potential area of excitement for the company. In November 2008, the company opened a new RM75 million non-dairy creamer plant to cater for exports to countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey and Russia. Nestlé Malaysia is the biggest exporter among Nestlé operations in the region. As at end-September 2008, exports accounted for 22.9% of overall revenue for the group.

However, what makes Nestlé stand apart from its peers is its ability to keep a tight rein on costs, according to analysts. Good cost control becomes even more important in a market where consumer sentiment has hit rock bottom and raw material cost has soared.

In fact, it was Nestlé's ability to hedge raw material prices that helped the company achieve sterling results in 1H2008, according to reports. As at end-September 2008, the company was in a net cash position — net cash generation from operating activities increased year on year to RM370.8 million from RM247.7 million.
Bloomberg data shows target prices for Nestlé range from RM28 to RM29.50. The stock has been trading at around RM27 over the last three months.

For FY2007, Nestlé paid out its highest net dividend ever — 113.81 sen a share or 13.8% more than in FY2006. Historically, its average dividend yields have been about 5%.

For FY2008, Nestlé has already paid out a gross special dividend and interim dividend of 61.19 and 50 sen a share respectively. Analysts are expecting the company's dividend yields to average 6.5% for FY2009.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :Top Glove Corp Bhd 顶级手套

Margins to improve on lower raw material costs

Top Glove Corp Bhd's profit margin was affected by rising raw material prices and the weakening US dollar in the early part of 2008. Despite the challenges, the company managed to improve its full-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) margins from 13.5% to 13.8%.

Now with the prices of latex declining and the US dollar appreciating, the company will be experiencing a reversal of fortunes. Thus, its margins are expected to improve slightly, at least, in the next quarter.

The company will also benefit from the lag effect of passing on the benefits of
lower raw material prices to customers.

That said, even if the prices of raw materials rise, Top Glove, like other glove manufacturers, has the advantage of being able to pass on the extra cost to customers.

What makes Top Glove different from other manufacturers is that it enjoys economies of scale mainly due to its size. It is the world's largest rubber glove maker and controls about 25% of the global market. Moreover, its plan to grow organically via the setting up of more factories enables Top Glove to register consistent growth.

The glove manufacturer's share price has fallen some 46% year to date. It closed at RM3.58 on Dec 30, 2008. Top Glove also provides consistent returns to its shareholders. Its gross dividend per share rose to 11 sen in FY2008 from 10 sen the previous year.

In terms of valuation, Top Glove is more expensive than other glove manufacturers. According to Bloomberg on Dec 31, Top Glove is trading at a price-earnings multiple of 9.51 times while peers Supermax Corp Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd are trading at is 3.38 and 6.58 times respectively.

But despite the higher valuation, analysts are optimistic about the stock. JP Morgan, which maintains an "overweight" on the stock, with a target price of RM5, expects demand for the company's gloves to remain relatively resilient despite the global economic slowdown. Top Glove supplies 80% of its gloves to the medical industry.

The research house believes that there are good growth opportunities and potential new markets, given that healthcare spending as a percentage of gross domestic product is still very low in China and India.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :Resorts World Bhd 名胜世界

Cash pile, fundamentals make resort operator a good bet

The large cash pile that Resorts World Bhd is sitting on is difficult to ignore. With RM4.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, or 78 sen a share, the company is sitting pretty, especially at a time when cash is king.

Resorts' market capitalisation had been reduced to RM13 billion at year-end — a poor reflection of the group's strong fundamentals and huge cash pile. Debts are negligible, and it generates cash flow before working capital changes to the tune of more than RM1.2 billion annually.

As a result, many believe that the stock has been oversold. The consensus is Resorts, at its current low prices, may be worth a closer look. The stock, which was trading at RM4.02 in January 2008, came down some 44% to close at RM2.24 on Dec 30. The gaming operator's share price, like all other stocks, were affected by the global financial crisis. In November, it also hogged the limelight for the wrong reasons when it entered into a related-party transaction with its major shareholders.

Fifty-five per cent of analysts polled by Bloomberg have a "buy" call on the stock, while 31% have a "hold" and 14% a "sell". The consensus target price for the stock is RM3.

Resorts' net profit for 3QFY2008 ending Sept 30 fell 49% to RM340 million, from RM668 million a year earlier. However, it should be noted that its 3Q results in 2007 was boosted by one-off gains. Revenue for 3QFY2008 rose 9.8% to RM1.22 billion from RM1.11 billion, and for the nine months to September 2008, Resorts World registered a pre-tax profit of RM1.37 billion on a turnover of RM3.6 billion.

Resorts, like all the other gaming operators, was dealt a poor hand last year but the counter's current level coupled with the company's huge cash pile, steady operating cash flow and resilient business could prove a good bet for 2009.