Friday, January 30, 2009

上半年三面夾攻‧馬股下半年看權力轉移



(吉隆坡)2008年大馬股市因政治海嘯元氣大傷,儘管政治氣候顯著降溫,但領導層權力交接將成為2009年下半年重頭大戲,惟一般相信,權力轉移料不會如過往般帶來25至30%的漲潮。

與此同時,全球經濟與股市走疲、馬股估值過高、外資持股比重居高不下等3大衝擊,則料繼續干擾馬股上半年走勢。

聯昌研究相信,市場表現將尾隨經濟下半年回暖,馬股評級依舊“中和”,綜指年杪目標保持在1013點。

聯昌研究表示,雖然國陣自308後連續2次補選失利,而民聯開始將2011年砂拉越州選舉視為重大里程碑,但國內整體政治氣候顯著降溫,促使今年股市前景較去年來得樂觀。

3月巫統黨選
4月領導層交接

“民聯在砂州選舉取勝可能性不大,料不會導致中央政權易手,民聯領袖拿督斯里安華欲掌權恐等到2013年才有可能實現,目前投資者均把目光投放在3月的巫統黨選和4月的領導層交接。”


2009年下半年的關鍵主題是領導層權力交接,但預見此次交接將與過往有些不同,主要是5年前敦馬哈迪將權力轉交拿督斯里阿都拉時,馬股在6個月內走揚25至30%,並在隨後進一步攀升10至15%,但在全球金融海嘯步步為營,以及多數投資者搶佔巫統黨選前漲潮便車,權力交接漲潮料不顯著。

倍受矚目的拿督斯里納吉上台後,將對內閣等事項進行必要的改變,加上其巫統需要改變和逐步減少新經濟政策(NEP)限制言論仍未全面兌現,預期市場在下半年將在潛在利好消息支撐下廣泛反彈或緩步走揚。

不過,全球經濟和股市走疲、馬股估值相對昂貴以及外資持股比重仍高於20%,仍未回跌至1997/98年亞洲金融風暴的18至19%水平三大因素,將是引領股市在上半年走疲的主要催化因素。

根據過往熊市週期的15至17個月時間觸底,以及平均53%跌幅計算,相信馬股料在700點左右水平觸底,而第2季將是重回股市的最佳時機。

上半年高息抗跌
下半年復甦週期

鑒於全年股市起伏不定,聯昌建議投資者繼續謹遵“上半年抗跌,下半年週期”的投資策略,上半年鎖定抗跌的博彩、膠手套領域,以及高週息率的楊忠禮電力(YTLPOWR,6742,主板基建計劃組)和大眾銀行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融組),但下半年則應轉向投資高貝他週期領域,以趕搭復甦便車。

“去年表現糟糕的產業、種植和建築領域料是下半年反彈的主要受惠單位,其中建築業料在振興經濟措施主題支撐下快速復甦以緩衝經濟走疲,而產業和種植則料在年中緩步復甦,主要是動力依舊疲弱。”

經濟環境持續惡化,企業盈利表現也叫人憂心忡忡,其中以銀行領域為甚,主要是國家銀行大砍隔夜政策利率(OPR)75基點,令領域前景蒙上陰影;種植領域因原棕油料持續難企於現有高位,維持“減碼”評級。

聯昌研究今年首次巡迴推展會地點,除吉隆坡外、還包括香港和新加坡,超過104家資產管理公司的262位代表參與其中。





文取自星洲日报

Friday, January 23, 2009

富时隆综指注重股票流通率 成分股洗牌谁是赢家



分析员指出,当富时大马交易所吉隆坡综合指数(FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI,简称富时隆综指)开跑时,有望跻进成分股并成为大赢家的股项,预料包括名胜世界(Resorts,4715,主板贸服股)、杨忠礼电力(YTLPowr,6742,主板基建股),以及百盛控股(Parkson,5657,主板贸服股)。

大马交易所昨日宣布,将从今年7月6日起,以富时隆综指取代现有的综合指数(KLCI),而指数成分股也将从100只减少至30只。

侨丰研究指出,由于富时隆综指的成分股有可能会与现有的FBM30成分股相似,因此,该行将FBM30指数和综指的成分股作比较后,设法找出新指数制度推行后的大赢家。

在两者相较下,该行发现,最大赢家将会是名胜世界、杨忠礼电力和百盛控股。因为它们虽然是FBM30成分股的一份子,但并不是综指成分股之一。

相反的,国油相关股项,以及即将被剔除在成分股榜外的70家公司,可能将会成为输家。

“此外,大型银行股以及马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服股)相关公司,在新综指中所占比重将会增加。反之,国油相关公司已经丹斯里阿南达克里斯南相关股项,所占的比重可能会因而减轻。”

赢家
●名胜世界、杨忠礼电力、百盛控股虽是FBM30的成分股之一,但不是综指的成分股,因此这3个股项将成为最大赢家。

●大型银行在综指中的比重将增加,其中包括大众银行(PbBank,1295,主板金融股)、马银行(Maybank,1155,主板金融股)和土著联昌控股(Commerz,1023,主板金融股)。

● 马电讯相关公司在综指中所占比重也有望增加。

输家
●无法跻身成为富时隆综指成分股的70只股项。

●在现有综指成分股中首30家公司中,金务大(Gamuda,5398,主板建筑股)、实达建筑(SPSetia,8664,主板产业股)和砂拉越电力(Sarawak,2356,主板贸服股),可能无法跻身富时隆综指成分股之一。

● 国油相关股项所占综指比重将减轻。

● 官联公司如国家能源(Tenaga,5347,主板贸服股)、南北大道(Plus,5052,主板贸服股)和马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股),占综指的比重也可能会减少。

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 : IJM Land Bhd 怡保置地


Shareholders, management known for nurturing assets

No matter how cheap they get, how well they are organised or how good their landbank is, property stocks are far from the path of recovery.

IJM Land Bhd, which was formerly known as RB Land Bhd, is no different. Despite having completed a rationalisation exercise in 2008 and emerging as one of the largest property developers in the country in terms of asset size, the stock has not captured the imagination of investors.

The value of properties under IJM Properties Sdn Bhd, which had some prime land particularly in Kuala Lumpur and Penang, alone was RM1.6 billion in August 2008. At current prices, IJM Land's market capitalisation is more than RM750 million, which is less than half the value of IJM Properties' landbank. Valuation-wise, IJM Land is trading at half its net asset value of RM1.33.

The company has shareholders and management who are known for nurturing assets, giving minorities little reason to complain. IJM Corp Bhd, the construction giant, holds close to 70% of IJM Land. Another shareholder is Peco Homebuilders (M) Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GSIC) which has, under the rationalisation exercise, accepted IJM Land shares at RM2 each.

Even IJM Corp's entry cost into IJM Land is high. IJM Corp subscribed for the rights issue, which comes with warrants, at RM1.35 each. It sold some 60 million IJM Land warrants to its senior management at about 26 sen each. The exercise price for the conversion of the warrants is RM1.35.

At the time of writing, IJM Land was trading at 68 sen and the warrants at 19.5 sen — at a steep discount to the entry price of IJM Corp and GSIC into the company.
Considering that the major shareholders and senior management recently put their money in the stock at much higher prices than the market price, there is reason to believe there isn't much downside for the stock at prevailing prices.

In terms of landbank, IJM Land has some prime parcels that are being developed in Kuala Lumpur and Penang. It has a chunk of land in Seremban which came from a merger with RB Land and would probably see a slower take-up rate.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 : IOI Corp Bhd IOI集团


Blue chip worth accumulating during CPO downcycle

Certainly, the big fall in crude palm oil (CPO) prices does not augur well for IOI Corp Bhd's earnings in FY2009 ending June 30 and maybe even FY2010.

This, however, does not mean the plantation giant is not worth looking at. More­over, this is not the first downcycle IOI Corp has experienced — during a previous down­cycle, the group had remained profitable even when CPO was trading below RM800 per tonne. CPO is now hovering between RM1,500 and RM1,600 a tonne.

No doubt, soft CPO prices have put the small oil palm planters in dire straits. But as one of the more efficient players in the industry — with low production costs — IOI Corp is capable of surviving the current downcycle.

Also, the group's extensive downstream activities will act as a hedge against poor earnings upstream. The weak CPO prices mean lower raw material costs for IOI Corp's speciality fat and oil production operations. Downstream activities are expected to be the key earnings driver for IOI Corp in the CPO downcycle.

The company's strong fundamentals have been overshadowed by current bearish sentiments. The group's foreign exchange (forex) losses are also a concern. IOI Corp announced a realised forex loss of RM100.6 million and unrealised forex loss of RM212.2 million in 2008. Some analysts anticipate more such losses due to the US dollar holding firm against the ringgit and euro.

These worries have depressed IOI Corp's share price, which fell more than 50% in 2008. The counter closed at RM3.58 on Dec 30, 2008.

The current share price may appear expensive amidst expectations of shrinking plantation earnings and the soft property market.

The group is unlikely to surpass its record high earnings per share of 38.65 sen posted in FY2008, but it will be the blue chip to accumulate should its share price weaken further. Being a leading player, IOI Corp's share price will be the first to surge when the next CPO upcycle comes, with investors willing to pay a premium for the stock.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 : Nestlé  雀巢


Tight cost control stands company in good stead

Consumer products stalwart Nestlé (M) Bhd remains a company to watch this year due to the stable earnings growth it offers investors. With its established portfolio of brands, including long-time favourites Milo and Maggi, and its ability to pass on costs to consumers, the company's earnings are expected to remain resilient.

Going forward, Nestlé's export segment is another potential area of excitement for the company. In November 2008, the company opened a new RM75 million non-dairy creamer plant to cater for exports to countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey and Russia. Nestlé Malaysia is the biggest exporter among Nestlé operations in the region. As at end-September 2008, exports accounted for 22.9% of overall revenue for the group.

However, what makes Nestlé stand apart from its peers is its ability to keep a tight rein on costs, according to analysts. Good cost control becomes even more important in a market where consumer sentiment has hit rock bottom and raw material cost has soared.

In fact, it was Nestlé's ability to hedge raw material prices that helped the company achieve sterling results in 1H2008, according to reports. As at end-September 2008, the company was in a net cash position — net cash generation from operating activities increased year on year to RM370.8 million from RM247.7 million.
Bloomberg data shows target prices for Nestlé range from RM28 to RM29.50. The stock has been trading at around RM27 over the last three months.

For FY2007, Nestlé paid out its highest net dividend ever — 113.81 sen a share or 13.8% more than in FY2006. Historically, its average dividend yields have been about 5%.

For FY2008, Nestlé has already paid out a gross special dividend and interim dividend of 61.19 and 50 sen a share respectively. Analysts are expecting the company's dividend yields to average 6.5% for FY2009.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :Top Glove Corp Bhd 顶级手套


Margins to improve on lower raw material costs

Top Glove Corp Bhd's profit margin was affected by rising raw material prices and the weakening US dollar in the early part of 2008. Despite the challenges, the company managed to improve its full-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) margins from 13.5% to 13.8%.

Now with the prices of latex declining and the US dollar appreciating, the company will be experiencing a reversal of fortunes. Thus, its margins are expected to improve slightly, at least, in the next quarter.

The company will also benefit from the lag effect of passing on the benefits of
lower raw material prices to customers.

That said, even if the prices of raw materials rise, Top Glove, like other glove manufacturers, has the advantage of being able to pass on the extra cost to customers.

What makes Top Glove different from other manufacturers is that it enjoys economies of scale mainly due to its size. It is the world's largest rubber glove maker and controls about 25% of the global market. Moreover, its plan to grow organically via the setting up of more factories enables Top Glove to register consistent growth.

The glove manufacturer's share price has fallen some 46% year to date. It closed at RM3.58 on Dec 30, 2008. Top Glove also provides consistent returns to its shareholders. Its gross dividend per share rose to 11 sen in FY2008 from 10 sen the previous year.

In terms of valuation, Top Glove is more expensive than other glove manufacturers. According to Bloomberg on Dec 31, Top Glove is trading at a price-earnings multiple of 9.51 times while peers Supermax Corp Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd are trading at is 3.38 and 6.58 times respectively.

But despite the higher valuation, analysts are optimistic about the stock. JP Morgan, which maintains an "overweight" on the stock, with a target price of RM5, expects demand for the company's gloves to remain relatively resilient despite the global economic slowdown. Top Glove supplies 80% of its gloves to the medical industry.

The research house believes that there are good growth opportunities and potential new markets, given that healthcare spending as a percentage of gross domestic product is still very low in China and India.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :Resorts World Bhd 名胜世界


Cash pile, fundamentals make resort operator a good bet

The large cash pile that Resorts World Bhd is sitting on is difficult to ignore. With RM4.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, or 78 sen a share, the company is sitting pretty, especially at a time when cash is king.

Resorts' market capitalisation had been reduced to RM13 billion at year-end — a poor reflection of the group's strong fundamentals and huge cash pile. Debts are negligible, and it generates cash flow before working capital changes to the tune of more than RM1.2 billion annually.

As a result, many believe that the stock has been oversold. The consensus is Resorts, at its current low prices, may be worth a closer look. The stock, which was trading at RM4.02 in January 2008, came down some 44% to close at RM2.24 on Dec 30. The gaming operator's share price, like all other stocks, were affected by the global financial crisis. In November, it also hogged the limelight for the wrong reasons when it entered into a related-party transaction with its major shareholders.

Fifty-five per cent of analysts polled by Bloomberg have a "buy" call on the stock, while 31% have a "hold" and 14% a "sell". The consensus target price for the stock is RM3.

Resorts' net profit for 3QFY2008 ending Sept 30 fell 49% to RM340 million, from RM668 million a year earlier. However, it should be noted that its 3Q results in 2007 was boosted by one-off gains. Revenue for 3QFY2008 rose 9.8% to RM1.22 billion from RM1.11 billion, and for the nine months to September 2008, Resorts World registered a pre-tax profit of RM1.37 billion on a turnover of RM3.6 billion.

Resorts, like all the other gaming operators, was dealt a poor hand last year but the counter's current level coupled with the company's huge cash pile, steady operating cash flow and resilient business could prove a good bet for 2009.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :QL Resources Bhd 全利资源


Resilience reflects strength of business model

QL Resources Bhd is one of the more resilient counters despite the recent stock market meltdown. Year to date, the stock had shed only 9.1% as of its Dec 26 closing of RM2.28 despite a 39.6% decline in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI).

The stock hit a high of RM2.99 in June before the global financial crisis erupted. The resilience of QL's share price reflects the strength of its business model in the face of a downturn.

While overall consumer demand may be affected as the economy slows, the diversity in QL's operations in the food and agricultural sectors is likely to spare the group any major revenue contraction. Meanwhile, the full-fledged downstream and upstream operations within its business divisions put the group in a stronger position than its peers.

The group has divided its operations into three areas — marine products (fishmeal, surimi products and deep-sea fishing); crude palm oil (CPO) milling and plantation; and integrated livestock (poultry farming and feed meal distribution).

The marine product and integrated livestock divisions account for about 90% of the group's earnings, while CPO milling and plantations contribute the remaining 10%. Hence, the impact of low CPO prices on QL is minimal.
The group has enjoyed double-digit growth since it was listed in 2000, fuelled by organic expansion as well as acquisitions.

It posted a net profit of RM46.73 million for the six months ended Sept 30, 2008, on a turnover of RM756.11 million. Both net profit and turnover increased 29.5% and 21.6% respectively, compared to the previous corresponding period. For FY2008 ended March 31, group net profit grew 27.7% year on year to RM80.8 million, while turnover rose 16.4% to RM1.3 billion.

Besides strong earnings, the group's balance sheet remains healthy with net gearing maintained at 0.33 times. This, however, excludes letters of credit or trade financing for the feedmeal trading operations.

At its current share price, QL's market capitalisation stands at RM752.4 million. The group is now trading at an undemanding 7.76 times forward estimated earnings (8.22 times historical earnings), based on consensus earnings polled by Bloomberg.
In a recent report entitled The eating is not stopping, Aseambankers says QL remains its top pick in the small and medium capitalisation consumer sector, with a target price of RM3.90.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :Astro All Asia Network plc Astro公司


Dividend yield of 4% for those who wait

Start-up losses and provisions for ventures abroad have dragged Astro All Asia Network plc into the red for four straight quarters, clouding the fact that its Malaysian operations are still robust and generating healthy cash flow. It didn't help that its numbers for 3Q2008 ended Oct 31 came in way below street expectations, largely due to an unexpected RM264 million provision for Indonesia.

Astro may have to set aside another RM75 million in provisioning for its Indonesia operations in 4Q, but this is a non-cash item which does not affect cash flow.
While there is a chance that Astro may join hands with another Indonesian partner after having severed ties with Lippo Group, re-entry terms, if any, are likely to be better for Astro. Moreover, conditions are fluid in Indonesia, with 2009 being an election year.

In the absence of large provisions for Indonesia in 2009, Astro is likely to return to the black as a group, given that its portion of losses in India in 2009 is not expected to exceed profits in Malaysia. That could somewhat boost sentiment, although a stronger US dollar means content cost is going up.

Still, at its RM2.28 close on Dec 30, 2008, Astro was trading at only 56% of its initial public offering price of RM4.06. It was also trading at a 24% discount to an already conservative discounted cash flow valuation of RM3. It would only take RM3.4 billion for tycoon T Ananda Krishnan (who owns 42% of Astro) to privatise the company at RM3 apiece. But for this to happen, the maths would have to be worth his while.

For now, investors can expect to receive a steady stream of dividends as Astro goes through "growing pains" abroad. Its board had promised to distribute at least half the profits generated in Malaysia as dividends to shareholders. Dividend payout for FY2009 ending Jan 31 is expected to amount to RM193.2 million or 10 sen a share (with 2.5 sen per share tax exempt declared every quarter). For FY2008 ended Jan 31, Astro paid 10 sen a share. At current levels, dividend yield is in excess of 4% for investors who are willing to stick around for value to emerge.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd 沙布拉浪峰


Just the stock for those looking for capital appreciation

For the next two years or so, SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd's earnings seem secure, largely buoyed by its hefty order book of some RM4.8 billion.

Some 81% of this order book, or RM3.9 billion, is in the drilling and installing pipelines and facilities (IPF) business, which enjoys high margins.

The impact of the IPF and drilling businesses can already be seen in SapureCrest's earnings. For the nine months ended September 2008, the company posted a net profit of RM89.4 million on the back of RM2.6 billion in revenue, which marks a gain of 99% and 52.9% respectively from the previous corresponding period.

SapuraCrest's IPF and drilling businesses picked up after it took delivery of the Sapura 3000 which it jointly owns with Acergy MS Ltd. The Sapura 3000 is a self-propelled heavy lift derrick pipe-laying vessel and was delivered in early February 2008. It was built at a cost of RM850 million, but has since considerably brightened SapuraCrest's prospects.

The company has also been touted to secure a RM3.5 billion (US$1 billion) contract for the provision of IPF works at the Gemusut oil well located off the shores of Sabah. The contract should commence once SapuraCrest's negotiations with the production sharing contract parties — Shell, Petronas Carigali and ConocoPhilips — are firmed up. This contract could expand the company's order book to above the RM8 billion mark.

Another vessel smaller than the Sapura 3000 is being built in collaboration with Indian company Larsen & Toubro Ltd, but this vessel will be dedicated to pipe-laying activities in shallow waters.

Interestingly, SapuraCrest has caught the attention of billionaire tycoon John Fredriksen who, via his vehicle Seadrill Ltd, has amassed about 24% in the company. In a buying spree that started in May 2007, Seadrill has mopped up some 288.4 million shares on the open market.

Lately, the controlling shareholders of SapuraCrest — Tan Sri Shamsuddin Abdul Kadir and his family — have been accumulating the company's stock possibly because of the weakness in its share price. Year to date, the company's shares have fallen 52%, and underperformed the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index by about 14%.

But for all the orders it has secured, SapuraCrest has a poor dividend payout record, which is why long-term investors are shying away from it. However, with Fredriksen upping his stake, the stock is likely to offer something for those looking for capital appreciation.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :Tanjong plc 丹绒


Well positioned to acquire more power plants

In good times and bad, Tanjong plc, the flagship company of T Ananda Krishnan is well known for its dividend play. This view has not changed despite the challenging economic environment.

In the last financial year, Tanjong paid out 90 sen gross dividend a share. For the current financial year, despite the tough operating environment, it declared 52.5 sen gross for the first three quarters.

Analysts are expecting gross dividends of about RM1.02 in FY2009 ending Jan 31 and RM1.12 in FY2010. That would translate to a gross dividend yield of 7.4% based on Tanjong's current price of RM13.50 — not bad for an independent power producer (IPP), considering that the sector as a whole did not fare well in 2008, following the introduction of a windfall tax in July.

Tanjong had to set aside RM55 million as payment for the windfall tax in FY2009 ending Jan 31. The government however withdrew the windfall tax. Although there is lingering concern that the government could force IPPs into agreeing to changes in the power purchase agreements (PPAs) in the coming years, Tanjong would probably be the least affected of the IPPs.

Given the uncertain regulatory environment and increasing scrutiny of the IPPs' licences, it is not surprising that Tanjong has continued to extend its reach outside Malaysia. It has power plants in Egypt and has acquired Globelaq Ltd, which has power plants in four countries, including Egypt. The Globelaq acquisition, which was completed in November 2007, has contributed to Tanjong's earnings growth of 22% in the current year of operations.

With an operating profit of RM750.3 million for the nine months to Oct 31, 2008, Tanjong has a strong enough cash flow to fund further acquisitions. It has cash and cash equivalents of RM1.2 billion for the first nine months; its short-term borrowings are RM750.3 million.

With asset prices in the power generation sector falling, Tanjong is well positioned to take advantage of the situation by acquiring more power plants. And considering its track record, rest assured that all acquisitions will be earnings accretive, which only means higher payouts. This is more than enough reason for investors to put their money in the stock.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :YTL Corp Bhd 杨忠礼机构


A safe haven for investors even in troubled times

YTL Corp Bhd's share price has performed relatively well despite the current economic turmoil, and since hitting a 52-week low of RM5.20 in mid-September 2008, the company's stock has bucked the general trend to gain about 30%.

The appeal in YTL Corp's stock lies in it having little downside, with the company's aggressive share buyback scheme propping up prices.

In 2008, YTL Corp acquired about 9.1 million of its own shares, which nudged its treasury shares up to 137.3 million. Although YTL Corp had a dividend yield of only 2.7% in FY2008, the prospects of the company handing out higher dividends are good in the longer run, considering its recent acquisitions.

Recently, its 53.3%-owned subsidiary YTL Power International proposed to purchase PowerSeraya Ltd, a Singapore-based power generator owned by the Singapore government's investment arm Temasek Holdings, for RM8.6 billion. The deal should be concluded by February 2009.

PowerSeraya could add on as much as RM76 million to YTL Power's bottom line from FY2010 ending June 30. This figure could also increase as PowerSeraya is building two 379mw combined cycle gas turbines that should be operational by 2010. This will increase its capacity by 24.4%. At present, more than 70% of YTL Corp's profits are from YTL Power. So, YTL Power's improved performance will be reflected in YTL Corp.

In addition to the growing operations of YTL Power, YTL Corp is sitting on fixed deposits of some RM12.5 billion and trade and other receivables of some RM2.2 billion. This is enough for it to continue to stay on its asset acquisition trail. The cash works out to some RM7.80 per share but this does not take into account the company's debts.

Another strength of the company is its management, headed by Tan Sri Francis Yeoh and the patriarch of the family Tan Sri Yeoh Tiong Lay. The duo have built the company over the years from a concern largely dependent on power generation into an asset-rich entity. Investors looking for a safe haven even in the worst of times can look to YTL Corp.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :Quill Capita Trust


Decent returns amid volatile market conditions

From a high of RM1.43 in March 2008, the unit price of Quill Capita Trust (Q-Capita) had tumbled to 90 sen as at Dec 26, not far off the price at which it had gone public in January 2007 — 84 sen.

Although the unit price has declined significantly, yield has increased on the back of rising dividend payments over the last two years.

Only 400 units of Q-Capita were transacted on Dec 26, and given such thin volume, it was traded at a wide bid-and-ask spread of between 81 and 90 sen. At this price range, the real estate investment trust (REIT) was trading at a forward gross dividend yield of between 9.3% and 8.4%. This translates to an attractive net dividend yield of 8.4% to 7.5%, after deducting a 10% withholding tax for individual investors.

The numbers were derived from management's dividend forecast of 7.53 sen per unit for FY2009 ending Dec 31. This is a 7.4% increase from FY2008's dividend of 7.01 sen per unit. The forecast was supposedly presented by management to Q-Capita investors in October 2008 when the US subprime mortgage woes worsened.

Notwithstanding the gloomy economic outlook, Q-Capita may deliver higher dividends in 2009, given its niche in purpose-built offices, which are tenanted by major multinational corporations.

Q-Capita owned 10 properties as of end-2008, of which four were acquired in 2008 alone with new lease contracts. The four properties, acquired for RM226.5 million, are purpose-built buildings tenanted by BMW, DHL, HSBC and Tesco. In the pipeline for 2009 is the acquisition of HSBC Malaysia's new headquarters in Kuala Lumpur.

Since its listing in early 2007, Q-Capita has grown its total and net assets to RM677 million and RM468.9 million respectively from RM524.2 million and RM413.6 million.

Its growth was underpinned by a strong shareholder in CapitaCommercial Trust — a unit of Singapore's government-linked CapitaLand Ltd, which owns a 30% stake in Q-Capita.

In a nutshell, Q-Capita should appeal to investors who are seeking decent dividend returns amid the current volatile market conditions, while anticipating certain capital gains from the REIT when the situation improves.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :PPB Group Bhd PPB集团


Better results from addition of Wilmar to stable

While diversified PPB Group Bhd has not been spared by the downtrend in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, it is still worth keeping an eye on as the company is expected to reap the benefits of having Asia's leading agribusiness group, Wilmar International Ltd, in its stable.

PPB — controlled by tycoon Robert Kuok — had already seen a boost in earnings following the incorporation of Wilmar's earnings, and does not discount the possibility of raising its stake in the Singapore-listed associate company.

Wilmar, which had fallen some 48.2% year to date to S$2.79 on Dec 31, 2008, gives PPB a good opportunity to increase its stake. PPB, which is favoured by investors for its sound management and consistent dividend payout, saw its share price decline 11.7% year to date to RM9.30 on Dec 31. It paid out a dividend of 30 sen a share in FY2007 versus 20 sen the previous year. For the nine months to Sept 30, 2008, the company has proposed a dividend of 67 sen a share.

PPB's 18.3% interest in Wilmar, which has a market capitalisation of about RM43 billion, is valued at about RM7.9 billion. After stripping the RM7.9 billion out of PPB's market capitalisation of RM11 billion, the rest of PPB's business, which includes its flour and sugar-processing operations, is only valued at RM3.1 billion.

Analysts are generally positive on Wilmar's earnings, which are expected to account for some 78% of PPB's net profit. In 3QFY2008, Wilmar's earnings were up 147% to US$483 million, mainly due to the higher sales volume and improved margins of its merchandising and processing business. It also generated some US$1.6 billion in operating cash flow.

Meanwhile, PPB posted a net profit of RM923.2 million for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2008, compared with RM6.9 billion a year earlier, while revenue rose to RM2.6 billion from RM2.2 billion. Note that earnings in 2007 were boosted by one-off gains from the disposal of assets to Wilmar under a corporate exercise.

PPB's cash flow rose to RM175.1 million as at Sept 30, 2008, from RM75.7 million a year ago.

Going forward, PPB expects its overall results in 2009 to better last year's performance due to higher contributions from Wilmar, despite the current global economic crisis that has created volatility and uncertainty in the business environment.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd 睦兴旺工程


Earnings growing despite economic slowdown

As the outlook for the global economy turns grimmer, Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd stands out as one of the few engineering and construction companies that continue to see earnings growth.

The company managed to post net profit growth of 38.6% and 19.7% in 1QFY2008 and 2QFY2008 respectively. Although 3QFY2008's net profit fell 14.5% due to higher building material costs, its nine-month net profit was 12.9% higher at RM57.35 million. At end-September 2008, Muhibbah had cash of RM373.4 million, compared with RM144.6 million a year earlier. Total borrowings stood at RM204.7 million. This means the company is effectively in a net cash position.

In addition, its strong order book of RM4.74 billion as at Nov 21, 2008, is seen as an impetus to help sustain earnings growth in the next few years.

Of the total, RM3.08 billion comes from Muhibbah's infrastructure construction division, RM908 million from the shipyard division and RM751 million from the crane division. These orders will support the group's revenue growth until 2013.

As the market tumbled, Muhibbah's share price dropped by a substantial 76.4% to 99 sen on Dec 26, 2008, from its year high of RM4.20 on Jan 11, 2008. At 99 sen, and based on Bloomberg's consensus estimated earnings per share of 21.4 sen for FY2008 and 26.6 sen for FY2009, the stock is trading at attractive forward price-earnings of 4.63 and 3.72 times respectively. It should also be noted that the stock is trading below its net asset per share of RM1.13.

Considering its impressive order book and clean balance sheet, the company appears attractive at current price levels and is worth watching in 2009.

InsiderAsia says Muhibbah should be able to "continue enjoying good profits" in the next few years due to its huge order book, which is one of the largest among listed local construction companies.

"The company's various operating units are also faring well despite the slowdown. Except for the crane unit, all other divisions posted good double-digit growth figures for the first nine months of the year," InsiderAsia says in a research note.
While Muhibbah has seen its margins erode, InsiderAsia says it is not a significant drop as the company has put in place some mitigating measures, including hedging and stocking policies for raw materials.

In addition, Muhibbah's Cambodian airport concessions in Phnom Penh and Siem Reap, held under 30%-owned Societe Concessionaire des Aeroports, continue to provide steady income although growth recently declined from double digits to single.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :TM International Bhd 马电讯国际


A 50% discount to its regional peer

Those who picked up TM International Bhd (TMI) shares when they dipped to RM3.12 on Dec 5, 2008, would have made a 48 sen, or 15%, profit on paper in just three weeks, going by the stock's RM3.60 close on Dec 26.

Given the uncertainties in the market, it is hard to say if there is more upside for the stock. Nonetheless, at least one issue that has given investors cause for concern has been cleared — TMI has lost out to UAE-based Etisalat in its bid for Iran's third nationwide mobile network licence. Investors were worried that additional spending in Iran would add to TMI's near-term debt burden. (An official announcement was pending at press time but Etisalat's CFO, Salem Ali Al Sharhan, in a statement to the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange on Dec 23, confirmed that its consortium with Tamin Telecom was "the highest bidder".)

As one of investors' main fears is TMI's highly leveraged position, clarity is needed on how the company plans to achieve what it calls "an optimal capital structure" through "equity and equity-like instruments". TMI says it will finalise this structure by 1Q2009.

Sentiment should improve if the structure does not greatly dilute investor holdings. Khazanah Nasional Bhd, which owns 45% of TMI, has said it will back the latter's funding needs. Khazanah is expected to underwrite a hybrid debt/equity issuance.
Concerns over currency fluctuations and TMI's exposure in emerging markets like Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Cambodia will be reduced if the company's key units continue to deliver decent numbers.

Expectations are highest for Celcom, which generates over RM1.3 billion in free cash flow a year and contributed 45% of group revenue and 50% of group ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) for the year to September 2008. Indonesia contributed about 37% to 38%.

At RM3.60, TMI is trading at only 4.7 times EV/ebitda (enterprise value over ebitda) for 2009 — less than half the 9.67 times EV/ebitda that its peer, Singapore Telecommunications Ltd (SingTel), is trading at. While SingTel's assets in India and Indonesia are more sought-after and the company is offering 4.9% yields to shareholders, does TMI deserve to trade at a 50% discount to its peer? Ultimately, the decision to buy TMI depends on whether one thinks the risks associated with the stock have been fully priced in.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :KPJ Healthcare Bhd 柔佛医药保健


Less affected by turmoil because of nature of business

KPJ Healthcare Bhd is one of the stocks that should be able to sidle through the current global economic slowdown, given that healthcare services are deemed a necessity. Analysts, in general, are of the view that it should be less affected by the poor economic outlook.

KPJ reported net profit growth of 90.1%, 40.8% and 14.3% respectively for the first three quarters of FY2008, mainly due to higher patient admissions and contributions from newly acquired hospitals. On a cumulative basis, its net profit for the first nine months was 42.4% higher at RM63.19 million.

Some of the group's previously loss-making hospitals — Perdana Specialist Hospital in Kelantan, Kuching Specialist Hospital and Taiping Medical Centre — turned around or broke even in 2008.

KPJ is in expansion mode, targeting to acquire more specialist hospitals in 2009. It is able to continue expanding because of its asset-light position. Its hospitals have been or are being disposed of to Al-'Aqar KPJ REIT — a real estate investment trust in which it indirectly owns a 52% stake.

Selling hospital properties to the REIT and then leasing them back has enabled the company to realise its investment in the properties, raise cash to pare down debts and generate recurring income from consistent cash distribution from the REIT. With savings in interest and depreciation expenses, KPJ has been able to better utilise its capital for operational expansion.

Based on its closing price of RM2.55 on Dec 24, 2008, the stock was trading at a FY2008 and FY2009 price earnings ratio (PER) of 6.68 and 5.77 times respectively, according to Bloomberg's consensus data. KPJ's PER valuations are undemanding compared to its regional peers' FY2009 PER of 10 to 20 times, says OSK Research.

In terms of share price, KPJ was more resilient than the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) in 2008 as the stock fell only 26.3% for the year up to Dec 26 compared to KLCI's fall of 40%.

Despite its thin liquidity, KPJ is an excellent choice for long-term investment and portfolio balancing, with steady dividend payout, according to OSK Research. For FY2008, the company paid an interim gross dividend of seven sen a share on Sept 26.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) 大马散装货柜


Appeal lies in strong balance sheet

Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) may not be on the shopping list of many analysts because the plunging prices on the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which measures dry bulk shipping rates, will take a heavy toll on shipping companies.

Their concerns are not misplaced as dry bulk shipping rates have dived to a 22-year low, which in some ways is uncharted territory for many of the younger analysts. As the BDI dropped from its historical high of 11,793 in May 2008 to its current level of 770, the view taken by many was that the days of supernormal profits were gone.

Despite such pessimism, Maybulk has its appeal. It has a lot of cash and little borrowings on its balance sheet, which will help the company keep its head above the water in the current economic climate. Net cash per share is now at RM1.06, given the company's large cash pile of RM1.42 billion.
Of this, some RM802 million will be forked out for a 22% stake in PACC Offshore Services Holdings Pte Ltd (POSH), which it is buying from parent Pacific Carrier Ltd (PCL).

Considering the acquisition and lower earnings, OSK Research believes Maybulk could still afford to maintain a dividend yield of 9% (based on its share price of RM2.31) — a return that is substantially higher than a fixed deposit.

Furthermore, the 22% stake in POSH, a provider of offshore support vessel services for the oil and gas industry, could be a re-rating catalyst for Maybulk's share price in the future.

Some critics argue that the deal is pricey, but management defends the acquisition as being watertight, given that Maybulk has the option to sell back its POSH shares to PCL if the investment turns sour.

Instead of expanding capacity when the BDI was soaring, Maybulk, in the past two years, has been divesting itself of vessels at exceptionally high prices, which caused its cash reserves to swell. The investment in POSH enables it to indirectly expand its asset base as the latter is buying a fleet of vessels.

Management's foresight in building up a war chest augurs well for the company in the current downturn. Sceptics, however, are viewing the purchase of the stake in POSH suspiciously, which has caused its share price to fall. But at current prices and with good management, there is little downside for the stock.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :KLCC Property Holdings Bhd KLCC产业


Solid enough to weather the financial storm

The words "solid" and "dependable" are often used to describe the mundane KLCC Property Holdings Bhd. How­ever, given the current market turmoil, these two qualities have turned the property owner into a credible defensive stock.

Backed by a strong portfolio of buildings in prime locations with long lease agreements and reputable tenants, it is easy to see why analysts favour KLCC.
"KLCC's earnings from its property investment segment are locked in with lease agreements and predictable upward rent revisions for buildings such as the Petronas Twin Towers," says Citigroup.

While most are expecting growth to moderate in the near term as the global credit crunch tempers consumer spending, KLCC — with its significant exposure to the retail office segment — is expected to weather the storm better than most.
There could also be a few earnings surprises for the stock, going forward, which dropped 28% from the beginning of 2008. The stock was trading at RM2.74 on Dec 30, 2008.

KLCC has consistently declared gross dividends of 8 to 10 sen a share, giving it a yield of 2.9% to 3.6% — far greater returns than keeping your money in a fixed deposit account.

According to analysts, future earnings growth will come from the development of its last two lots of land, potentially higher rates from the renewal of lease agreements and capital value growth.

The development of the two lots, scheduled to start in 1H2009, is expected to add two million sq ft to KLCC's existing net lettable area of five million sq ft by 2014. The presence of Petronas as a major shareholder certainly adds to the stock's glitter, say analysts.

"Its (Petronas') strong patronage has allowed KLCC to benefit from cheaper sources of financing. In addition, Petronas, which owns KL Convention Centre, could take the lead role by injecting assets into KLCC in the future," says RHB Research, which values the company's stock at RM3.09.

Fundamentally, the company is strong with a low net gearing of 0.4 times and stable net operating cash flow of above RM400 million. With a total asset value of RM9.5 billion and the pedigree of its major shareholder, KLCC looks more than equipped to ride out the crisis.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :Hong Leong Bank Bhd 丰隆银行


Overseas ventures beginning to pay off

Although local banks have been relatively sheltered from the financial turmoil in the US, their operating environment is expected to be tough, going into 2009.
Hong Leong Bank Bhd (HLB), however, has the added boost of revenue from its China operations and improved asset quality. With the contribution of its associate in China, HLB managed to register a strong set of numbers for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2008.

Registering a year-on-year net profit growth of 29% to RM242 million in 1QFY2008 ended Sept 30, HLB saw improved performance with an additional RM28 million from its 20%-owned Bank of Chengdu Co Ltd. The better results were also due to high non-interest income due to foreign exchange gains. Its asset quality has also improved, with loan-loss coverage improving to 109% and net non-performing loans ratio coming down to 1.8%.

Nevertheless, HLB's stock price does not reflect the bank's steady performance. From its 52-week high of RM6.45 in January 2007, the stock had dipped to its 52-week low of RM4.94 on Dec 17, 2008. Some 57% of analysts polled by Bloomberg have a "buy" call on the stock, which is trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.4 times, and a consensus target price of RM5.80.

With the purchase of the Chinese bank now completed, HLB's entry into China is believed to be the catalyst for the banking group moving forward. Its FY2009 ending June 30 will see full contribution from its Chinese associate.

HLB is also entering the Vietnam market. The bank recently received approval from the Vietnamese government to open a 100% foreign-owned bank in the country. HLB will establish Hong Leong Vietnam with a capital base of one trillion dong, or nearly US$60 million (RM208 million).

HLB is steadily venturing abroad to diversify its risks and tap growing opportunities overseas for the longer term, and is already starting to see the fruits of its labours.

Thus, at its current low level, the stock makes an attractive pick for the long-term investor.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项: BINTULU PORT 民都鲁港


Staying afloat in turbulent times

With average dividend yields of more than 10% over the past few years, and a business model that is only likely to be marginally impacted by the economic downturn, Bintulu Port Holdings Bhd easily qualifies as an investor favourite in turbulent times.

With its mainstay in the handling of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Bintulu Port's earnings are likely to remain resilient and largely unaffected by the weak global economic climate.

In 2007, LNG cargoes amounted to about 78% of operating revenue and accounted for about 59% of cargo throughput.

Thus, while the economic downturn might impact Bintulu Port's container and bulk operations, the LNG operations are unlikely to feel the crunch.

With Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) controlling some 32.8% of Bintulu Port's equity and an additional 2.6% parked under its shipping unit MISC Bhd, there is unlikely to be any drastic change in the current scenario.

Malaysia LNG Sdn Bhd (MLNG), the LNG manufacturer located at Bintulu Port, has long-term contracts to supply gas to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, among others, which will ensure that Bintulu Port gets a steady stream of ship calls.

It is also likely that MLNG, a unit of Petronas, will step up its LNG production capacity, which in turn will translate to more revenue for Bintulu Port.
For the nine months ended Sept 30, 2008, Bintulu Port posted a net profit of RM117 million on the back of RM333.3 million in revenue. In contrast to a year ago, net profit improved by 3.3% while revenue inched up 7.4%.

It is also noteworthy that with Bintulu Port's cash hoard of RM494.3 million and trade receivables of about RM30.3 million as at end-September 2008, a capital repayment or special dividend payment cannot be ruled out.

With these possibilities, it is not surprising that Bintulu Port's stock has performed quite well amidst the financial turmoil. Year to date, the company's shares have fallen only 7% and outperformed the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index by about 35%.

2009年 20只备受瞩目的股项 :IJM CORPORATION 怡保工程


Trading at a steep discount to net asset value

Malaysia's biggest construction outfit, IJM Corp Bhd, lost 66.4% in market capitalisation year to date and is now trading at less than half its net asset value (NAV) of RM5.60 per share.

The discount is more significant if the market value of its two listed subsidiaries is taken into account. IJM's 76.54% stake in IJM Land Bhd and 54.31% stake in IJM Plantations Bhd are together worth RM1.27 billion, making up half of IJM's market capitalisation.

Hence at current market capitalisation of RM2.54 billion (based on IJM's share price of RM2.71), the value of its construction operations and other businesses is only RM1.27 billion.

While IJM's shares look cheap from the asset value point of view, some analysts are concerned about its future earnings performance.

For instance, sales of properties at IJM Land are expected to be slow in 2009, while IJM Plantations has already been hit by low crude palm oil (CPO) prices. The margin of the group's core construction activities, even with RM4.6 billion worth of outstanding jobs, is another concern, especially with regard to IJM's projects in India that make up about 40% of its order book.

Nevertheless, as raw material prices have recently declined and with the government pump-priming the domestic economy with infrastructure projects in 2009, the floor could have been set for IJM. A rebound in CPO prices could also benefit IJM Plantations and hence its parent IJM.

Based on these premises, five out of seven analysts polled by Bloomberg who updated their calls on IJM in December 2008 actually recommended a "buy", "trading buy" or "outperform" on the stock, with target prices of RM3 to RM6.10. In a nutshell, IJM has a strong management track record and a solid balance sheet to ride out the current cyclical downturn. The stock's current price weakness makes it an attractive pick if one is taking a two to three-year investment horizon.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

扭轉全球局勢‧美人仍是主角‧中國舉足輕重


“盲的都知道是熊市!”

這句話一點都不誇張。從去年下半年開始,“暴跌”、“歷史新低”與“救市”等字眼紛紛爭相交叉出現,全球經濟衰退與信貸緊縮迅速席捲每個階層的生活,所有投資者被催眠得不敢輕舉妄動,整個投資與消費市場風聲鶴唳,相信連盲人都可想像到苦瓜滿街跑的畫面。

踏入新一年,照理說應該新希望滿溢,不過全球各地經濟惡耗仍不間斷,各國政府斥資的大型經濟振興方案已經多到沒有驚喜,消費數據也紛紛指向南方,因此今年經濟與股市走勢究竟如何,相信沒有人能打包票。

雖然大馬目前內需看起來仍走勢堅挺,不過真正要對抗經濟放緩利空,仍不得不依賴外圍出口的臉色。而全球三大巨頭美國、中國與歐元區如何繼續左右全世界的經濟命脈,相信是投資者非常關注的指引。究竟今年是誰主宰全球經濟命脈?誰會繼續在經濟困擾浪潮中打轉?這些可是牽動所有社會階層的神經,畢竟誰也不想繼續被這波金融風暴打入金字塔谷底。

全球經濟面面觀

由於目前全球超過一半國家經濟已經陷入衰退,促使多國政府與中行聯手不斷積極救市,以避免全球經濟陷入硬著陸危機,不過目前連最資深的經濟學家都無法確定是否已探底。值得注意的是,今年轉機焦點肯定在中國,若中國有望維持高成長,則全球經濟將可間接獲得扶持。

益資利研究表示,美國政府與大部份國家目前都寧可背負龐大預算赤字,來換取刺激經濟成長。尤其目前通膨已跟隨原油與原產品價格暴跌而走軟,因此各國政府目前更能轉注尋找刺激經濟方案。

次貸非經濟惡化唯一元兇

“在美國方面,毫無疑問的次貸危機已經破壞美國實體經濟,並逐漸蔓延至全球金融開放市鶠C雖然如此,這並非造成全球經濟惡化的唯一元兇,這還包括之前因原油價飆升引發的高通膨。”

全球各地通膨不斷攀高,例如美國去年7月通膨創下5.6%的17年新高,歐元區在6月更寫下4%歷史新高等,連同信貸緊縮因素,導致多國私人消費情況嚴重收緊。

“其實,目前美國房屋市場仍未開始穩定,不過全球信貸市場已有轉暖跡象,證明市場已開始出現轉機,料游資短期內會逐步重現活躍。雖然如此,目前局勢千瞬萬變,投資者已必須每天必須貼緊時事走勢才能確定投資無誤。”

同時,若中國無法維持強勁成長,全球經濟可能會更陷入更大困境。目前中國主要依賴農業產品來刺激經濟成長,接下來則為製造業與建築工程,最後為服務業。

“慶幸的是,第3季中國農業產品需求仍強勁,在經濟轉淡下依然可逆流而上取得成長,抵銷奧運後製造業、建築工程與服務業下滑利空。不過在全球經濟風險提高下,中國也無法擺脫出口需求減弱利空,因此今年上半年可以說是未來經濟探溫計。”

左右大馬經濟>

益資利認為,目前全球經濟普遍引擎是來自美國、中國與歐元區,這三大經濟體佔全球經濟生產總值48%,佔2007年經濟成長45%,證明上述國家經濟地位在全球舉足輕重,而依賴出口推動成長的大馬經濟肯定與它們走勢息息相關。

其中,大馬經濟成長可說與中國亦步亦趨,從2000年首季至2008年第3季資料顯示,兩國之前經濟相關指數已拉近至0.63(滿分為1),高於傳統主要貿易夥伴美國的0.54;至於與歐元區關係為-0.11,證明當地技術性經濟放緩對大馬影響不大。

“因此,雖然美國經濟已經衰退將打擊大馬的電子相關產品出口,不過若中國經濟仍維持高成長,大馬出口商仍有能力轉移出口下滑風險。即使中國經濟真的無預警放緩,料也只是呈現軟著陸曲線,這使大馬經濟掃除硬著陸憂慮,料短期內不會立刻嚴重放緩,而是步伐逐步減輕而已。”

經濟低潮築底
料明年反彈


目前仍不知道美國要多久才能解決這次經濟危機,不過自從第2次世界大戰後,美國經濟衰退期都不超過24個月,而目前全球許多市場交易比歷史最低股價對賬面值偏高一點,因此推測全球經濟低潮已經築底,料最遲明年可以開始反彈。

“情況好的話,美國、中國與大馬今年經濟可強勁復甦,中國經濟成長可望攀回10%,而大馬在今年下半年可能會跳回5%門檻。不過若經濟持續惡劣,全球經濟可能陷入技術性放緩,全球成長甚至低過3%,中國經濟下半年甚至會跌破8%。”

目前,美國經濟已經陷入技術性衰退,第3季按年實體經濟成長已經從次季的2.1%急挫至0.7%,至於按季方面更從次季的2.8%下滑至-0.5%;在歐元區也尷尬步上美國後塵,次季與第3季經濟成長都按季寫下-0.2%尷尬,按年方面則分別取得1.5%與0.6%微幅成長;中國雖然仍維持高成長,不過步伐也不像往年那樣囂張急促,今年首次季經濟成長仍能勉強維持在10%關口以上,各寫下10.6%與10.1%,不過第3季立即受到全球蹣跚走勢影響而破功,創下9%平淡紀錄,因此才加深全球經濟展望黯淡的憂慮。

金融信貸虧損已見底?

益資利認為,目前全球經濟放緩不完全全球信貸破產造成的。雖然美國次貸危機已影響許多實體經濟及全球經濟,不過高通膨也是其中一個妨礙成長額因素。“慶幸地,許多國家的消費價格指標都紛紛下滑,由於過去幾個月礦產與農業原產品價格下滑,令許多國家通膨到明年仍可維持低氣壓,減輕許多公眾負擔。若消費者開銷恢復,將可望刺激經濟成長。”

至於全球關注的次級貸款虧損何時了結,分析員認為最快可在未來半年見底反彈。國際貨幣基金組織預計全球持有美國政府與企業相關債券會潛在減記1.4兆美元。截至去年9月止全球已減記達7600億美元,其中76.3%或5800億美元來自銀行,而目前減記額已累積9800億美元,料危機已經步入尾端,按照減記步伐來看,未來半年可清理所有減記潛在虧損。

其實,分析員坦承全球信貸虧損對亞洲影響不完全重要與非直接,尤其從去年9月情況來看,亞洲銀行減記情況不多,不過次貸影響蔓延至許多實體經濟與出口表現,因此區域信貸問題主要來自信心而非資本短缺。

不排除資金人外流

目前最主要是看今年3月及4月各國政府與中行的跟進應對策略。“目前每個國家看起來初步拯救計劃能自行紓困,信貸市場能繼續回暖,外資回籠現象提高。不過目前去杆杠活動仍延續,因此未來幾個月不排除資金仍外流。”

在截至去年9月減記活動中,美國虧損額最大,高達3300億美元,佔全球分額56.9%;歐洲則以2400億或41.4%居次;亞洲受波及最輕,僅減記約100億美元。

大馬經濟何去何從?

雖然今年美國與歐盟經濟仍逃不出衰退魔掌,中國也無可避免陷入經濟放緩憂慮,令大馬今年經濟前景受制走低,不過在服務業走勢仍堅挺嚇,加上通膨從高峰回落有望為金融與產業消費背書,因此益資利投資研究看好大馬今年經濟成長仍可維持4.1%至4.3%。

“這項預測比較早前預測5.2%偏低,主要是本地製造領域比想像中腳步更放緩,加上全球超過一半經濟體都陷入衰退,而本地通膨放緩程度仍比想像中滯慢。”

這項預測仍未把政府推行的70億經濟振興配套執行效率計算在內,同時國際貨幣基金組織預計中國今年經濟成長可能將從去年9.7%放緩至8.5%。若中國實體經濟成每長放緩1%,大馬經濟成長則會跟隨減低0.6%。

振興計劃只減輕防緩

“大馬是一個小型開放交易國家,在國內發生的企業經濟消息都不會影響其他國家,而經濟命運主要掌握在幾個大型經濟體手上。經濟振興計劃只能協助減輕防緩,並不能完全讓整個經濟回轉,因此仍胥視全球經濟表現。”

由於全球消費緊縮,出口品需求將受到打擊,間接影響國內製造業的產能與銷售額,尤其目前全國各地製造業已紛紛傳出裁員或刪減工作日等撙節措施,因此料今年推動經濟成長重任將由服務業抗起。

“預料今年服務業佔經濟成長54%。由於政府已經7次調整油價,雖然現在次級效應仍未完全發酵,即許多商品仍未跟隨原油價格下調,不過至少消費謹慎情緒已慢慢減輕。加上國家銀行也下調隔夜政策利率,料可讓零售、休閒或餐飲公司業績壓力暫時喘一口氣。”

原棕油價未來可望反彈

不過,全球經濟嚴重衰退與金融危機加劇,未來幾年企業盈利或許減少,因此益資利認為目前賬面值才是較安全的投資指標。其中建議加碼消費股,因為政府經濟措施料可刺激此領域;至於中期可追捧種植股,因為未來原棕油價可望強勁反彈。

“其他領域由於透明度欠奉,料投資者可根據受損較小、資產負債表強勁與盈利可持續的股來酌量投資。由於全球經濟仍持續不穩定,各國仍不時傳出許多企業週轉不良的消息,因此廖本地公司仍會謹慎資本開銷,尤其在製造業方面,料過了上半年情況才會好轉。”

外國直接投資已停止流出

經濟學家指出,近期股市與馬幣兌美元不斷回升,證明了外國直接投資已經停止流出,並開始有回流趨勢。不過不穩定因素仍蠢蠢欲動,包括政府經濟振興計劃的執行效率、本地服務領域與私人開銷情況不明朗,因此建議投資者仍採取繼續觀望策略,不要因為貿然進場而燒傷手。“不過投資者可選擇本地獲利穩定且有能力派息的公司,未來6個月可較清楚看見投資商機。尤其是有週期的領域如種植股。”

由於大馬通膨已有下滑趨勢,料消費情緒可回揚,而利率下跌與雇員市場仍健康,料仍提供金融與產業市場成長空間。預計服務業今年仍能取得按年5.5%成長,私人開銷則從去年9.1%放緩至4.5%,至於私人投資領域則會稍微提高至4.2%。

“在建築領域方面,若政府取消或拖延基建工程,則成長會受到影響,不過料私人房屋計劃仍會緩慢成長;石油天然氣領域的工程也會繼續推進建築領域開銷,料今年成長在3%。而礦業與農業分別為2.9%與2.6%,前者主要靠原油與天然氣推動,後者則依賴工業農產品與食品。雖然近期礦產與原產品價格下滑,不過生產量提高,因此仍有利可圖。”

玩股票與賭博大不同


股票市场是千变万化的神奇魔场,股市行情的波动瞬息万变,实在难於捉摸,不管是投资人还是投机者都同样面对不确定的情形。一般上,当人们在处理不确定性的情形时,赌性就发挥它的作用。赌博心理在生活中是非常普遍的,而在股票市场上就更为显著。股票市场原本是投资的场所,但是许多人却把它与赌场相提并论。

赌博具有两面性,不是输就是赢。玩股票,不管是投资还是投机,实质上也是一种金钱游戏,和赌博一样会出现两种结局,不是赚钱就是亏损。在股票市场上,自觉与不自觉地怀有赌博心理的投资人大有人在,特别是一些短线投资者中,大部份人都不知不觉地掉进嗜赌的陷阱。

股票收益来自三方面

事实上,玩股票和赌博是大不相同的,它绝对不是赌博。赌博是没有生产性的,而股票的收益来自三方面,这是股票的基本投资价值。

股票投资的收益来自哪三方面呢?

一、股票升值

股票升值旦根据公司资产增加的幅度和经营状况而定的,具体的体现为股票价格上涨所带来的收益,股票之所以能够升值,根本原因在於上市公司的经营有方,管理有术,获得了较丰厚的盈利,同时预期股息收入也将增加。

二、股息和红利

买进股票作中长线投资,如果公司盈利丰厚,便可以获得股息和红利。当然股息的多少与公司的业绩有密切的关系,因此,必须花一些时间研判,选购优质股。

三、差价利润

差价利润又叫资本利得,就是掌握时机,摸准股市节拍,低价买进,高价卖出,以赚取差价利润。

尽管股市变幻莫测,影响股价涨跌的因素错综复杂,有股市外在的因素,内在的因素,许多的客观因素都在投资人所能掌握的范围之外,但是它毕竟和掷骰子、押大小不一样。

上市公司把公司的股权上市,供大众认购,持有这间公司的股票,就是这间公司的股东。一家上市公司就是一家企业,企业是做生意的,无论是实业生产、建筑、建材、银行、酒店、种植、服务、电讯、科技等,或是多元化组合,各行各业始终都是生意,把财力、人力、物力和技术等组合起来生产产品,提供服务,以赚取利润。买股票作为股东,其实与一般的生意人没有很大的分别。

商家投资做生意,就一定要有实质的服务和产品提供给有需要的人,他们不能甚么都不做。生意人付出了资金,就期望生意做出一些成绩来。

玩股票就是投资生意

上市公司的股东也一样,他们是投资者,把钱交给上市公司的管理层去运作,管理层有责任好好运用这笔资金做生意。严格地说,玩股票就是投资生意,将自己的钱买进有生意头脑、有经营才能的商人管理的上市公司。当上市公司业绩亮丽,投资者就可分享公司的成果。

既然是一门生意,投资者虽然不具有决策的权力和责任,但是却和上市公司经营息息相关。由於股票的基本价值是来自公司的经营状况。要估计公司的价值,就不是无迹可寻的,那就不是像赌博那样单凭运气,投资者可观测公司的实力,透过对公司业务前景的评估和分析,从而作出投资决策。

分析是科学化的东西,是知识性和专业性很强的东西。股票可以从经济、政治、业务、财务、市场、行业、科技与分析指标等多方面进行分析。股票分析可以取得很多有用的资料,整理资料之后再作更精确分析,通过逻辑性的推理求得之答案,这是赌博所不购的。说得白一点,如果不懂股市、不会分析和操作技巧而去玩股票,就没有具备充足的投资条件,也就不可能在股市上成为赢家。

2009 建築材料業


需求放緩出口看淡

建筑材料业评级:中立、短线交易

★机

*鉴於市场需求放缓,本地钢铁厂商削减产量、抑制供应过剩,同时维持卖价在一个合理水平,对於钢条,预料价格将稳定在每公吨2200至2300令吉之间。

*虽然需求可能受影响,不过,公司赚幅在成本偏软、特别是煤矿及柴油价格下跌之下获得缓冲。

需求展望疲弱,预计煤矿价格保持偏低,零碎金属的价格每公吨下跌至大约380美元的水平。

*联昌证券研究评建筑材料业是一个可以进行短线交易的领域,政府的70亿令吉振兴经济配套,将有助於复苏本地的建筑业,预料有利因素将延伸至建筑业领域。

*另外,该证券研究也建议对拉法洋灰进行短线交易,主因是该公司是本地主要的洋灰厂商,该公司的展望在改善中,政府的注资及稳定物价等措施,是主要的激励因素。

★危

*全球经济成长放缓,特别是在本区域及中东市场,因而削弱了出口领域的展望,尤其是钢铁产品的出口。

*政府展延推行第九大马计划的其中一些发展计划,料将打击市场的需求,最坏的情况可能引发一场价格战,特别是洋灰厂家,不过,出现类似情景的机率不高。

*国际价格不稳定,将继续造成威胁,特别是在钢铁领域,中国实行的措施对全球钢铁价格也有一定影响。

*尽管钢铁及洋灰业的发展自由化,我们面对进口的威胁有限,特别是洋灰,该建材的价格在本区域市场具竞争性,此外,以快速运输而言,本地业者占有优势。

*由於出口展望暗淡,全球价格疲弱,该证券研究对安裕资源(ANNJOO,6556,主板工业产品组)保留中立评级。

2009 建築業


振兴配套或成转捩点

建筑业评级:短线交易、表现低於大市

★机

*在70亿令吉振兴经济配套,其中的40亿令吉拨给建筑业,对此领域来说,可能是个转捩点,除了激励此领域,也可以推动一些计划的开跑。

*耗资350亿令吉的提升交通领域资金,可以在2009年开始启用,并成为推动发展计划的催化剂。

*所有不利的因素已反映在一些建筑股的股价,2008年1月至今,已下跌大约70至80%,交易介於重估资产净值的69至76%。
*联昌证券研究对建筑领域保持短线交易建议,吸引人的价值、该领域局部复苏,原料价格软跌,都将对盈利及赚幅造成不利冲击,虽然效应不是马上显现。

*此证券研究对怡保工程(IJM,3336,主板建筑组)及金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑组)做出短线交易建议,这两只股项也是此证券公司的首选,WCT工程(WCT,9679,主板建筑组)则因为在海湾国家的定位受推崇。

至於马资源(MRCB,1651,主板建筑组)则是主要的政府相关建筑股,成荣集团(MUDAJYA,5085,主板建筑组)从印度独立发电厂取得持续性收入,这些都是他们的优势。

★危

*赚幅紧缩是盈利面对风险的主要因素,这可能导致拨备增加、资产值缩减,虽然钢铁的价格占建筑及大型道路工程的25至30%成本,在2008年7月高峰点下跌60%后,仍处於下跌轨道,不过,对赚幅的冲击不会马上显现。

*於2008年8月公布的价格差距补偿,可能不会全面实行,而且还需要时间,高度依赖这一奖掖措施的中小型承包商,盈利可能进一步面对压力。

*大型计划的推行,可以进一步展延,政府在基本设施发展的预算也比较严谨,并可能重新评估其发展计划。

一些不利市场的进展,如耗资46亿令吉的槟城第二大桥、31亿令吉的西海岸大道重新招标计划,以及耗资125亿令吉的北马双轨快铁计划,发展值可能被削减,也可能影响规划中的其他大型发展计划。

在这方面,联昌证券研究认为怡克伟士(EKOVEST,8877,主板建筑组)的表现可能落后於大市,原因是依斯干达经济特区的催化剂稍微褪色。

2009 產業發展


成本升高赚幅缩小

产业发展评级:中立、表现低於大市

★危

*2008年3月全国大选举行后,政治存在不稳定因素对市场造成打击,加上随后在年中石油与电费上涨,进一步打击消费者的信心与基本因素,成本上涨压力造成发展商赚幅缩小,他们之中有不少无法将成本转移。

*吉隆坡城中城高档共管公寓市场超建,一旦建筑计划在2008/2009年相继完工后,可能导致价格面对下跌压力。此地区共管公寓潜在泡沫,可能影响市场对其他地区产业的需求。

*许多已经将产业投资信托上市的建商集团,正探讨寻求套现,而不是大举扩大与加强资产的组合,这也是为何产业投资信托回酬接近双位数高水平的原因。

*联昌证券研究评价实达(SPSETIA,8664,主板产业组)表现比大市低,虽然在目前严峻的环境,该公司可以维持销量,可是,该公司却面对建筑工程拖延、赚幅缩小的问题,主要是建筑材料成本升高。


★机

*中低价房屋购买力指数仍在最佳水平,利率保持偏低,银行继续提供具吸引力的抵押借贷率。

*市场对住宅产业的需求保持殷切,政府放宽外资购置产业条例、撤消产业盈利税,以及每月从公积金账户偿还分期付款等措施,都是一些主要的激励因素。

*由於过去数年新增供应减少,吉隆坡办公楼市场市况保持稳定,租用率及租金水平 处於上升格局,特别是在吉隆坡黄金三角,A等级办公楼产业创下新高。

*联昌证券研究指出,马星集团(MAHSING,8583,主板产业组)及KLCC产业(KLCCP,5089,主板产业组)是此公司首选的股项,选择马星集团是因为该公司管理严谨,以及在市况严峻时采取强有力的促销手法。

KLCC产业是一只抗跌股,特别是此公司在吉隆坡城中城发展首要等级投资产业,租金水平保持可观,其办公与零售产业大厦几乎接近100%水平。

2008年乱世中的风云人物


财经界在2008年深陷多事之秋,本地政治海啸和全球金融海啸的双面夹攻,让整个局面变了样。所谓时势造英雄,在这种危机时候,更看得出一个人的领导能力和危机应对力,这也让今年的风云人物,更具看头。


这一次,我们从乱世中挑选21位人物入榜,他们都在风起云涌之际,施展出个人独特风范。

这群英雄现齐聚在本周的《2008风云人物》,读者可以为他们打分数,看看谁是本年度的枭雄,再来预测明年的他们,是否还有呼风唤雨的能力。

丹斯里洁蒂 主导大马经济地位

金融海啸席卷全球,多个经济强国纷纷倒下,国家银行的经济政策,更在这场危机中扮演举足轻重的角色。

丹斯里洁蒂担任国行总裁至今已有8年,在掌管国行的日子里,她的表现一直有目共睹,祭出的政策也受各界所认同,正因为表现标青,她受委为高阶工作队——金融体系和世界货币革新专家委员会成员之一,也成为国际清算银行的亚洲咨询委员会主席。

然而,当全球在今年早前掀起降息风潮时,大马国行却迟迟未有动作,许多传闻也开始弥漫市场。

有人阴谋论的认为,这是政府力量在背后操纵,洁蒂即将被撤换的传闻随之传开,洁蒂也破天荒,首次针对这类“市场传言”作出驳斥。

但纷纷扰扰多时后,我们看到洁蒂仍然冷静、优雅的主持国行会议,并宣布将隔夜政策利率降低0.25%。

明年的经济将更受挑战,我国经济是否能如预期般达到3.5%的目标?

除了政府的振兴政策,洁蒂要怎么挥舞指挥棒,也是另一股重要的力量。

拿督斯里依德利斯贾拉 带领马航起死回生

马航再次信心满满的翱翔蔚蓝苍穹,他功不可没。

依德利斯贾拉在2005年接下马航这块烫手山芋,在2年内将业绩转亏为盈,并且重建2万名员工的信心和志气,再一次成为让大马人骄傲的国家航空公司。

依德利斯让马航转亏为盈,因而荣获“2008年度东方航讯人物奖”。

在他的带领下,马航也同时荣膺英国Skytrax五星级航空公司,全球仅有6家航空公司获得此荣誉。

依德利斯对于获得这项荣誉相当高兴,但向来谦虚的他表示,这是团队的努力将马航转亏为盈,并放眼成为世界5星级价值的航空公司。

依德利斯的合约在今年截止,但良好表现让马航将他的合约再延长3年,即从2008年12月1日至2011年11月30日为止,相信未来3年在他的带领下,马航会飞得更高、更远。

拿督斯里阿都华希 擅于“打救”企业

他一直是一名善于“打救”企业的精英分子。

从马友乃德集团、到马电讯、再过档到马银行,他每一次加盟新公司,都有能力将公司带入新的里程碑,在交出亮眼成绩后,又接受新的挑战,朝更高目标迈进。

阿都华希每一次的媒体汇报会,都对记者刁钻的问题游刃有余,而且对公司行政业务了如指掌,再再证明他是一名“尽责”的总执行长。

话虽如此,马银行收购印尼国际银行一案的重重波折,却为他添加了压力,与记者对答时,也少了当初的笃定。

天降大任于斯人,甫加入马银行,便遇上席卷全球的金融风暴,收购印尼国际银行的活动也引起市场诸多批评,多家券商的分析员皆批评马银行这次走错了棋子,收购来得不合时宜。

获得首肯多次,又触礁多次,这项收购最后终于获得批准行事,但收购回报仍是一大疑问;再加上全球银行业的“大毒瘤”未根治,马银行前景如何?善于解决难题的阿都华希,看来又到了证明自己能力的时候。

拿督斯里东尼费南德斯 大马廉航的奇迹

他是话题人物,不管去到那里都会成为焦点,更成为抢手的头条报道。他是我国廉价航空业奇迹-拿督斯里东尼费南德斯。

亚航成立以来,囊括多个大奖,身为创办人的他也成为媒体争相采访的人物,他的多项壮举对许多人来说,像个“神话”。

他也多次公开挑战马航总执行长-拿督斯里依德利斯贾拉,两人之间也为市场制造不少“火爆”话题。

但一直处在顺势中的亚航,今年却开始遇到“波折”,所谓的“神话”也不再如此风光。

外汇兑换亏损以及撤销燃油护盘合约的损失,导致亚航陷入多事之秋,在今年第三季成为创立以来首次亏损。

此外,原本有意将亚航私营化的母公司Tune Air,也因为无法在现有信贷紧缩的市况取得融资,而撤销计划。

亚航在面对多重挑战后的前路,好像不再那么亮眼;向来风头无两的东尼费南德斯,会继续透过他本身作为“活招牌”进行品牌塑造活动,还是会稍稍收敛,降低头上光圈的亮度?看来,就算他选择“低调”,一举一动仍成为焦点。

拿督贾玛鲁丁 电讯业头号精英

明讯(Maxis)被私有化之后,当时担任集团总执行长一职的拿督贾玛鲁丁也告别他在位十年的光辉岁月。

贾玛鲁丁领导期间,明讯由一间亏损的电讯公司到目前的市场领头羊,银发的他功不可没。

当时有记者询问他的去向,他回答:“我计划休息一阵,然后才决定下一步要怎么走,也无计划加入敌对公司服务。”

但是不到一年的时间,便传来贾玛鲁丁过档马电讯国际的消息,虽然他曾多次否认,但最后证实传言属实,成为是精英过档的另一佳例。

他在电讯业有举足轻重的地位,现在帮过去的敌对公司工作,是否能帮助马电讯国际在竞争激烈的电讯市场,争取多一些市场份额,已成为大家关注的课题。

丹斯里方天兴 打造钢铁王国

认识丹斯里方天兴的人,都会对他的和蔼亲切、温文儒雅留下深刻印象。

他从不掩饰自己出身低,也完全没有企业家的架子,但在人前总展现柔性一面的他,在做决定时却非常果断。

1948年出生,在关丹土生土长,只有小学程度,方天兴凭着一股干劲努力打拼,从一个弱不禁风的少年成为一个铁汉子,将父亲创立的“锦记号”发扬光大,扬威海外。

1967年,锦记从收集废铁生意,转而买卖钢铁,再转向多元化和制造业发展,现在是上市于主板的一家卓越股。

但方天兴令人津津乐道的故事,还是把柏华嘉控股,从烂摊子变为黄金地的战绩。

方天兴大胆以3亿令吉收购,誓将柏华嘉控股化腐朽为神奇的做法,让很多人冷眼相待,但是他的信心成功将它变成一家大有盈利的公司,更在今年于大马交易所主板上市。

然而,世界经济走低多少影响建筑工作,钢铁业预料也受到打击,向来善于解决困境的方天兴,是否能在另一波劣势中逆流而上?这将是他来年的大挑战。

拿督尤斯里 明年挑战更严竣

大马交易所今年可谓“流年不利”,3·08大选之后大马股市暴跌130点或10%,并史无前例的触动大马交易所的断路机制(circuit breaker),全场暂停交易1小时。

之后,股市就一蹶不振,不断朝南劲走,跌势难以招架,大马交易所的收益也严重受影响。

风波还不绝于此,大马交易所还因为硬盘故障而暂停交易一天,这被业者批为“严重的失误”;也有人阴谋轮的说,这些“失误”属于人为,背后牵扯了政治因素,为这场“故障”再添疑云。

停盘事件发生后,市场传言这可能影响大马交易所总执行长拿督尤斯里的续约,最后,总资讯长被撤换,暂为这场风波做了一个“交待”。

由于股市低迷,大马交易所在今年祭出许多措施,如:缩短交易时间、建议将主板二板合并、及推出“新的交易系统”,但仍被许多业者批为“治标不治本”。

由于市场暗淡,马交所在9个月仅赚9000万令吉,盈利股息的前景也不佳。

拿督斯里的合约即将到期,他是否能获得续约?在交投淡静声中,马交所明年如何突破重围?尤斯里明年的挑战,已摆在眼前。

拿督赛再纳 为普腾一洗前耻

赛再纳和依德利斯同一时间加入各别公司,肩负扭转劣势的重任,但也许国家汽车控股牵扯的问题较多,因此“扭转劣势计划”的进展并不如马航顺利。

在政府相关公司的改革计划中,国家汽车控股的成绩最属差强人意。

它不但落后其他政府相关公司,是否能达到关键表现指标也令人关注。

但在最新车款销量大好的激励下,国家汽车控股最新全年业绩成功反亏为盈,取得2亿零2869万令吉的净利,普腾终于“一洗前耻”。

虽然赛再纳成功带领公司转亏为盈,但董事部可能会作出一些新的委任,更传出赛再纳可能在合约届满后离开。

但最后,掌舵人的一纸合约还是落在他手中,在汽车业面对大挑战的未来,他会制定什么新方向,让普腾继续目前的增长势头,越战越勇?任重道远的他,矢志为普腾挡风遮雨。

丹斯里阿米尔山 国家经济新气象

前任马银行(Maybank,1155,主板金融股)总裁兼总执行长丹斯里阿米尔山,在今年被委任为首相署部长,并成为经济策划局(EPU)的新掌舵人,市场对他寄以厚望,相信他将为我国的经济策划带来新气象。

分析家表示,纵横商场多年的阿米尔山,了解金融领域和商界所面对的问题。如果他能和第二财长丹斯里诺莫哈末互相配合,一定能为我国经济发展带来很好的效应。

他于1994年受委为马银行董事经理,之后被委任为总裁兼总执行长。

在内阁重组后,他以上议员的身分被委任成为首相署部长,并率领首相署旗下的经济策划局。

有人说,来自私人界的他,已经与商界建立良好的关系。这对他在策划经济政策时大有帮助;同时策划经济政策应该会抱持客观的态度,不会有政治色彩。

但在各项压力下,他是否能如清水芙蓉,不受任何政治干扰?相信未来他将用各项政策回答这个问题。

拿督斯里纳吉 挑起大马经济重担

3·08变天之后,大马政局有了崭新的风貌,但新的格局并没有换来安稳,反而是更多的风雨缥缈。

政治风波一波接一波,在纷扰多时之后最后终于有了定案。

首相拿督斯里巴达威将在明年3月正式交棒给副首相拿督斯里纳吉,在正式替换之前,后者将担任财政部长,当起一国经济的掌舵人。

当前的经济危机,却被政治问题抢去风头,金融界很希望,纳吉担任财政部长后,能赶快将经济拉回正轨。

的确,在他上台之后,便颁布了70亿令吉的救市计划,还有其他一系列促进市场开放的策略,希望起着推动经济的作用。

现在,各国都在拼经济,在危难之际,领导人的远见和判断,显得特别重要,和其他国家的国际政治关系,也牵动外交和外贸表现,更是能吸引多少外资的重要因素。

大马明年的经济如何,重担落在他的身上。

他是否能为我们的经济谱一个晴天,是大家关注的问题。

丹斯里哈山马里肯 具王者风范

国际原油价格今年上半年飙升至高位,国家石油也成为美国《财富》杂志中“2008年世界500强企业排行榜”中,亚洲最赚钱的企业。

收入大增对企业而言当然是美事一桩,但身为国家收入来源之一的国油,却因此陷入尴尬。

当政府收入减少之际,各界矛头指向国油,要他提高贡献;就连收入使用不当,也有人怪罪国油的有欠透明,理性分析国油不免有点“背黑锅”之嫌。

国油掌舵人丹斯里哈山马里肯,不知招架了上述评语多少次,也在“国油集团年度业绩表现”的记者会上透露,石油及天然气领域占国家总收入来源的50%,单单国油就占了其中的44%,国油需要资金进行再投资。

好景不常,国际原油在今年下半年大幅收窄,国油的营收也有可能大减60%,国油提高探勘生产的计划,也会导致开销增加。

要负担国家的收入,国油的压力比一般企业大,总执行长的压力也更大。哈山马里肯向来给人威严凌厉之感,或许只有像他这种深具”王者风范“的执行长,才能镇住巨大的压力和风雨。

丹斯里李深静 财富大起大落有因“油”

IOI集团今年坐上超刺激的过山车,一年内表现大起大落,成为今年市场的焦点“话题公司”之一。

今年上半年,原棕油价格掀起一股飙涨热潮,种植公司IOI集团尝尽甜头,企业高唱丰收,盈利表现带动股价齐齐飙升。

IOI集团在今年股市处于荣景之际,成为领涨股之一,股票从1年前的3.70令吉暴涨116%至8令吉,李深静的财富也增加1倍至149亿4千万令吉。

但是好景不常,原棕油价格暴跌、股价低迷、再加上外汇巨亏,拖累了IOI集团的表现,作为外资钟爱的股项,股价和市值因此显著挫跌,一度写下10年最大跌幅,李深静的财富也急速缩水。

纵使IOI集团多次喊话,财务仍稳固,但多家券商已将公司财测调低,更预料全年盈利将逊去年。

但万没想到,最后给予意外冲击的,不是外汇亏损,而是在新加坡的产业计划而遭遇意想不到的冲击,可能导致IOI集团的净利减少1亿7800万令吉。

原棕油价格的飙涨令他一度坐下马股市值最大的上市公司,而原油棕油期货的护盘活动,却因汇率走高而受损,以致最终面对外汇亏损,李深静下一步如何应对,再带动种植股潮,的确令市场引颈长盼。

丹斯里阿兹曼莫达 带领国库走向改革

身为国库控股的董事经理,丹斯里阿兹曼莫达可谓任重道远,要管理属下多家官联公司,他就算没有三头六臂,也要有不凡的领导能力。

对阿兹曼来说,国库控股却对场于今年才爆发的全球金融海啸危机表示感恩,庆幸于这场风暴不是在四年前官联公司(GLC)进行改革时发生,否则,就会有更多的公司被这场大浪所吞没。

阿兹曼在2004年受委为国库控股董事经理;而官联公司于2004年5月开始进行改革重组,为期10年的重组现已走过4年半,从首阶段的重组,现已晋入转型。

在经过4年半的重组转型之后,官联公司的基础已更稳健,更具备度过风暴的实力。

阿兹曼莫达表示,官联公司的重组转型需时10年,目前已走了4年半。而在这大计下,国库实也官联公司的转型路上或面对危机设想过。

先防守现金与资本开销,再选择进攻时间,是官联公司在应对现有全球金融危机时期的最新任务。

丹斯里张晓卿 主宰中文报江山

张晓卿一手打造的“世华媒体”,正式在今年于香港及大马,进行双边上市,奠定了他“中文报业大亨”的地位,成为“中文报梅铎”。

在1988年收购《星洲日报》之前,这位砂拉越木材大亨在半岛仍为名不见经传。

过后随着业务的扩大及媒体的报导,他的名字及创业史也开始广为人知。

其实,张晓卿并非池中之物。

这一位白手起家的木材大亨。

他中学毕业后,原在其舅父的伐木公司任职,学习伐木技能。

1957年,他另起炉灶,自创常青公司。

1987年,张晓卿从高涨的木材价格中套取厚利,崛起成为“木材大亨”。

经过多年的拼搏,原来的常青公司已发展成几百家公司组成的企业集团,业务横跨三大洲。

尽管收购活动遭到一些人的非议,但熟悉他的人却指出,他是因为太热爱中华文学,才对中文媒体有特殊的感情。

据知,他平时喜欢阅读中国文学、历史与思想,并花费颇长的时间在媒体业务上,对华人文化拥有深厚的认识与热忱。

郭鹤年 大马首富宝刀未老

他一人身兼“两王”,先是享有“亚洲糖王”的美誉,后来又有“酒店大王”之称,可他的事业还不仅限于此。

从白糖、酒店、房地产、船务、矿产、保险、传媒到粮油,他创建了一个庞大的商业王国,也创造了无数的奇迹。他可能是除了政治领袖外,最广为人知的马来西亚人。他就是杰出的企业家、马来西亚首富郭鹤年。

据亚洲《福布斯》公布的大马40名富豪当中,大马富豪郭鹤年依旧稳坐首富地位,去年的财富暴涨了24亿美元(77亿令吉),至100亿美元(320.87亿令吉)。

虽然是家喻户晓的人物,但郭鹤年不喜欢抛头露面,而且生活节俭简朴,作风平易近人,处处体现出他那地道的绅士风度,赢得了他的朋友、下属乃至对手一致称赞。

他上下班从来都是挤地铁,对于他来说最奢侈的事情就是开车上班,他穿的衣服也几乎没有上百元的。

他不追求虚名,非常务实,讲话言简意赅,做事踏踏实实。虽然他与马、新两国许多要人有着深厚的私人交情,但他除曾担任马来西亚驻美国大使和马来西亚旅游局主席等职外,极少出入政界,维持着一种低调的作风。

拿督阿兹兰再努 “夹心人”左右为难

公积金局管理着大马国民的财务,身为公积金局总执行长拿督阿兹兰每一个举动,自然成为焦点。

在经济前景不佳,人民喊穷之际,每一滴“血汗钱”的投资方式及其派息作风,都不得马虎,更考验阿兹兰的领导风范。

但公积金局借贷给Valuecap私人有限公司的50亿令吉作为救市计划的举措,却引来轩然大波。

有人驳斥政府不顾人民血汗钱,要顾及人民又要考虑政府收入的公积金局,难免会做“夹心人”的角色,这种苦滋味阿兹兰本身最为清楚。

此外,阿兹兰也担任兴业资本主席一职,脱售兴业资本25%股权予阿布达比商业的动作,也引起市场关注。

拿督林树杰 没落中的产业大亨

计划赶不上变化,怡观资本今年波折重重,原本看似进入佳境的计划,却因一场政治变天逆转整个发展格局。

公司子公司Abad Naluri私人有限公司,被指示重新检讨槟城环球城中城的发展计划,以确保该项计划符合槟城市议会所提出的建议。

槟城环球城中城的发展计划,因为当地民众投诉,槟城环球城中城的发展计划,将加剧人口稠密以及交通阻塞的问题,因此被要求重估计划。

除了槟城的计划遭搁置,建筑原料价格上涨,加上供应不稳定对发展商造成压力,怡观资本也将在今年内进行整合,并且延迟至2009年才会再推出新产业发展计划。

随后,怡观资本便出现一连串的人事变动,该公司主席兼执行董事拿督林树杰辞职,并由原为非执行董事拿督斯里东姑阿末接任主席一职。

坊间也有传言,他的离开有背后的“政治”故事,身为拿督斯里阿都拉亲信的他,在阿都拉即将离开政坛之际,他在企业的地位也随之落下。

拿督林云琳 金务大灵魂人物

金务大董事经理拿督林云琳今年突然大幅减持股权,除了引起诸多猜测。虽然当时他一再强调保留董事经理的职位,但各界对金务大的信心动摇,股价也一时间掉至谷底。

现年50岁的林云琳,持有伦敦大学国王学院的土木工程学士学位,并在土木工程和建筑领域,拥有超过26年的经验。

他在1978年加入金务大,成为资深工程经理。在他的领导下,金务大成为多元化发展的机构,业务触角涉及海内外的建筑和基建工程,以及产业发展。

由于他已成为金务大的“代言人”,因此他减持股票的举动,让人怀疑公司前景阴霾,尽管林云琳在过后作出多项澄清,但仍无法稳住投资者信心。

后来,金务大管理层下聘书,让林云琳任金务大董事经理5年,对稳定军心起着一定作用。

但不久之后,又传出金务大将被中东财团私有化的传言,为金务大前景再度增添疑问。

到底金务大将何去何从,林云琳又将如何管理公司,相信对的时机就会自有分晓。

拿督阿末朱比 收购心脏中心成焦点

拿督阿末朱比是于2004年6月13日加入森那美;在担任森那美总执行长职位以前,阿末朱比尔已在该集团的数家子公司担任高职。

阿末朱比掌管森那美的这三年内,结合国内3大种植公司,即森那美、金希望和牙直利共8家上市公司,形成了全球最大种植公司,阿末朱比也成为整合后公司的总执行长。

森那美在阿末朱比的带领下,一直表现良好,但身为全球最大的棕油种植生产商,企业盈利还需看“油”的面子。

由于原棕油价格大跌,全球最大的棕油种植生产商--森那美也下调该集团今年财年的盈利增长目标,并表示盈利可能下滑因原棕油价格下跌将影响种植业务的收入,并重估关键表现指标。

在森那美的种植盈利组合中,原棕油价格每变动100令吉,集团的盈利也将会随着移动2亿令吉。

正当大家该为这家公司进行总结时,森那美则在今年结束前两周宣布献议收购国家心脏中心55%股权的计划。此献议一出,马上引来各界不同反应,甚至出现戏剧性的变化,即在政府原则上同意森那美进行收购的不到24小时内,遭到内阁却推翻这项建议。

最后的定案会如何?阿末朱比将如何应对?料将成为2008年结束前,大家茶余饭后的一个话题。

拿督斯里仄卡立 掌管经验非常老练

仄卡立在2004年被委任为国家能源总执行长时,便引起商场的注目。 虽然他的一些决定被认为颠覆传统而受到抨击,但他的信念却从未动摇,并作出了许多正面的改变。

他加入国能时,年仅39岁,但已能独当一面,并建立了一定的声望。

市场人士指出,他的年龄虽轻,但“掌管经验”却非常老练。之前为会计专才的仄卡立,已有份参与领军英达丽水(IWK)、玲珑集团(RENONG)、联熹公用及大马统一合作的各项计划。

今年,国家能源却面对多重压力,电费是否调涨、与独立发电站的合约问题、煤炭价格等课题,紧咬国能不放,要如何制定成本架构永续增长,成了仄卡立的大挑战。

然而,第三季净利却出现2004年以来最严重的萎缩,并在第四季再度面对亏损,表现未达理想,管理层也惨遭国库控股董事经理丹斯里阿兹曼莫达的炮轰,呼吁正视国能长期赚钱,却面对现金流量不足的窘境。

市场更传出,仄卡立将提早一年,在2009年下台,并由朝圣基金总执行长依斯米依斯迈取代。根据合约,仄卡立原定在2010年6月30日届满。

但仄卡立却在记者会上驳斥以上传言,并强调他将任职至届满期结束为止。国能在他的带领下,是否能突破重围?

丹斯里赛莫达 不按牌理出牌

企业大亨丹斯里赛莫达,每次出现都会带来重大的企业活动,今年也不例外。

他领导的多元重工业,入股成为成为国家汽车控股的股东,公司正草拟计划书,建议收购国家汽车经销旗下所有与普腾无关的业务,然后把它注入普腾集团,进而换取普腾的股权。

因此,当国家汽车经销与普腾经销私人有限公司合并后,多元重工业将会成为普腾的股东。

除了这项活动外,他属下的马矿业也进行了一系列的企业活动。除了斥资购买士乃机场,脱售丹绒柏勒巴斯的活动,也将接近尾声,尽管计划不被分析员看好,但赛莫达对他的企业决定总是信心满满。

同时,私有化吉朗的消息,也从今年5月便一直在市场流传,但马矿业却只口否认,仅表示他们仅“加强合作”。

赛莫达做企业决定,总是不按牌理出牌,最后的决定如何,也只有他本人最清楚。

丹斯里林国泰 开创云顶另一片蓝天

他是云顶第二代掌门人,创业难守业更难这句话,放在他身上最贴切不过,但他交给大家的,一直是一张张漂亮的成绩单。

作为已故富豪丹斯里林梧桐的次子,林国泰从小就具备企业家的眼光。在接过云顶集团的领导捧子后,不只将业局限在凉爽的山顶,反之将事业版图扩充至海外如英国、新加坡、澳门及美国。

但云顶在今年的表现,未免有些“出师不利”,多项业务备受冲击,云顶在第三季蒙受亏损,股价在一天内下挫8.1%,庞大卖压的笼罩下,外国券商也就昂投资评级从“增持”下修为“减持”,导致云顶前景更暗淡。

券商强调:“云顶在种植、电力与英国赌场业务前景不佳,就算名胜世界维持云顶短期展望,但整体业务仍然低迷。”

林梧桐曾经在自传中,用能干、深谋远虑,深具自己风格的企业家,来形容林国泰,相信后者在这危机时刻,会不负父亲重望,让云顶再过关。

2009年 消费领域需求放缓


金融风暴笼罩全球的乌云尚未散去,全球的经济已开始走弱,从美国吹向欧洲,甚至蔓延到日本以及新加坡。


新加坡近期宣布该国的经济衰退,达证券行相信,我国也难以幸免,也将受到全球经济衰退影响。

联昌国际投资研究分析员预测,我国明年的经济增长放缓至3%,而今年的经济增长为5.6%。

达证券行分析员预料,大马的私人消费将从2008年的7.8%放缓至2009年的6.5%,而2009年的通胀压力也将回软。

“由于(一)商品与服务的需求放缓、(二)政府祭出多个举措降低食品与石油价格,我们预料通胀压力将在2009年回软。”

由于食品领域提供了抗跌的盈利与慷慨的股息,分析员维持食品领域“中和”评级。

“消费者会更加谨慎开支。相对奢侈品,消费者将优先注重必需品。”

在众多个食品生产商当中,联昌国际投资研究相信雀巢(Nestle,4707,主板消费产品股)在抵御全球经济放缓中略胜一筹,因为该公司具有广泛的产品系列,也能从海外对清真产品与日俱增的需求中受惠。

回顾2008年,闹得沸腾腾的三聚氰胺事件也已告一段落,一些食品诸如成长奶粉、咖啡以及速食面已在今年调涨销售价格。

分析员不排除,若生产商的成本效益无法抵销较高的生产成本,明年或将再次调涨食品销售价。

现金强劲股息稳定 烟草领域抗跌力强

尽管营运环境充满挑战以及股市振荡,但是烟草业者相当具弹力,仍递出不俗的盈利增长。

“强稳的营运现金流动、稳定的股息,加强了烟草业者抗跌能力。”

分析员称,英美烟草(BAT,4162,主板消费产品股)与JT国际(JTInter,2615,主板消费产品股)提供的周息率超越了市场的收益。

英美烟草的股息派发政策超过90%,以及JT国际拥有每股近1令吉的净现金与资本回退计划──每股75仙,将在2009年首季完成。

烟草领域在接下来与近期的催化剂,是即将在2008年杪实施的底价政策。

这项政策是20只香烟的底价是每包6令吉,或每支30仙。若以每支为基础,这将收窄超低价香烟及合法香烟之间的价差。

此外,减少公积金缴纳率,虽对烟草领域的总销售影响极小,但也有助扭转其领域下滑的趋势。

调高烟草的国产税虽能协助政府达到(一)提高税收、(二)提高反吸烟的立场,但是,分析员认为,调高国产税将对总体销售不利。

“国产税在以往5年,从2002年的每公斤48令吉调高至每公斤180令吉,这使到香烟价格增加了80%,也导致总销量下滑。”

政府实施的另一项政策,诸如规定香烟包装必须印上危害身体健康的警示图画和资料,预料在推动初期将使到消费减少。

销售赚幅压缩 汽车领域挑战严峻

信贷危机以及经济增长放缓,促使分析员预估,汽车领域的销售与赚幅将被压缩,因此,维持汽车领域“中和”评级。

“经济放缓、严格的贷款审批、激烈竞争、疲弱的消费情绪以及动荡的股市,汽车领域明年迎来充满挑战与艰巨的一年。”

不过,随着政府近期降低石油与食品价格,减少公积金缴纳率以及提供更低的融资成本,分析员认为,这对汽车领域有激励的作用。

分析员预估,汽车领域的总销量将明显收窄11%至48万7785辆,因为严谨的贷款批准过程以及经济前景放缓。

另外,波动的外汇,尤其是日元与美元,令汽车领域面对挑战。

分析员称,令吉以及日元汇率走强将对业者的赚幅带来压力。因此,分析员继续以90日元兑1美元与3.60令吉兑1美元作为2009年杪的汇率预估。

在艰巨及竞争激烈的大环境下,陈唱摩多(TChong,4405,主板消费产品股)是联昌国际投资研究的首选股项,因为该公司已采取了多项举措改善现金流量,并转向一或两班制生产、减少成本以及提高需求策略。

因此,该证券行维持合顺(UMW,4588,主板消费产品股)“中和”评级。

至于国家汽车控股(Proton,5304,主板消费产品股),分析员认为,普腾虽与三菱(Mitsubishi)结盟,但是缺乏股权参与及长期的科技转移,仍是一个主要课题,加上该公司主要瞄准的市场是中低收入群,而它们却是经济放缓首当其冲的一群,因此,继续维持普腾“落后大市”评级。

经济放缓逆流而上 博彩领域不受影响

尽管经济活动放缓,基于博彩领域的营业额增长进展如预期以及下注的活动持续,分析员预料博彩明年的营业额增长为4%。

“字票业务(NFO)在以往的经济滑坡中突现了其稳定,主要是因为价格便宜与字票赌注的特质。”

分析员称,经济进一步恶化将削弱消费者的信心以及导致支出更加谨慎。这使到赌场的附属领域,某些程度上在消费者情绪与可支配收入产生了正面的作用,预料字票并不会受到影响。

尽管字票领域已达到饱和的阶段,预估明年会取得1%至3%增长,且主要由市场主导者——成功多多(BjToto,1562,主板贸服股)引领。

虽然名胜世界(Resorts,4715,主板贸服股)的赌场执照是每季更新及字票执照每年更新,但是这并非是该公司的主要风险,因为所有的博彩业者皆需符合严谨的规则。分析员预料,由于名胜世界坐拥丰裕的43亿令吉现金,并购活动可能在短期至中期内进行。

保持国产税催化 啤酒领域正面受惠

基于大部分的酒是自由购买,加上减少公积金缴纳率提高了可支配收入、燃料价格下降、近期的降息以及没有调高啤酒国产税,这对啤酒领域的需求存在正面的激励,分析员预料其领域的总销量在2009年将取得5%的增长。

“啤酒领域已3个年头免遭调高国产税,这对其领域是个好消息,因为以往调高国产税,该领域的总销量下滑,并导致销售价格提高。”

分析员指出,2009年预算案并没有调高啤酒的国产税,这对该领域的总销量是正面的催化剂,且也提供该领域一些喘气的空间。

健力士英格(GUINESS,3255,主板消费产品股)是联昌国际投资研究的首选股项,因该股项提供了吸引人超过10%的周息率。

愈是恐惧 愈要勇敢进场


,这将是2009年最火的一个字!因为今年起,你把钱存银行,不但生不了利息,可能还要贴钱给银行,银行才愿意收。


一场零利率风暴,正急如星火的从美国颳向世界每个角落。

集体恐慌蔓延 半年内10万人停扣基金

12月16日,美国联邦储备局史无前例大降息,将联邦资金利率一口气降到0%至0.25%间。没错,0%,你没看错,这是美国的利率,创历史新低,也让全球进入零利率时代。

也在此刻,周遭的人们奔相走告,“大萧条来了!”“还有更多的坏消息会出现!”“隔壁邻居的大姊被裁员,大婶股票亏钱每天要吃安眠药才能入睡”。

集体恐慌正在蔓延:只要脑中浮起股票行情看板,你的心就揪在一起;说起理财,大家恨不得往地洞里钻。问起手中的定期定额基金,人们的回答都是“早就停扣了!”

基金市场也上演大逃亡潮,近半年来,已有10万人停止定期定额基金的扣款,是定期定额投资总人数的六分之一。专家预估,未来可能还有30万人会被震出场!

“赚钱一定要低买、高卖”,这是你过去的常识,但如果你不幸买高、套牢了,怎么办?忍痛卖出?从此闭起眼睛、捂起耳朵吗?

非也非也。即便你套在高点,即便经济萧条,你还是有出路的。

“空头市场是定期定额买基金最好的机会,因为同样一笔钱,你可以买到更多的基金单位数”,台湾世新大学财务金融系副教授郭敏华说。

正视萧条情况 和自己的投资和平相处

其实,多数定期定额的投资人,都是因为了解这点才投资的。

但是,当股市响起空袭警报,你却忘了投资前的逻辑?台湾政大财管系教授刘玉珍说,这不是IQ问题,而是EQ(情绪智商)问题。你在投资上的EQ有多高?

在零利率时代中致胜

普林斯顿大学行为科学教授卡尼曼(Daniel Kahneman)发现,“情绪”,在人们的投资决策中扮演关键角色,也因此,他在2002年得到诺贝尔经济学奖,而情绪反映在投资上,会让人产生5大心理偏误,就像衍生出来的情绪魔鬼,让人们做出盲目的投资行为。

因此,唯有抓出这5个情绪魔鬼,锻炼你的投资EQ,你才能像乌龟般,与自己的投资和平共处,在零利率时代中致胜。

市场已进入超卖格局 小心 5情绪魔鬼主宰判断

荩赌资效应

2006年时,全球股市大好,买什么赚什么,健兰看着手上定期定额基金的报酬率不断上涨,她大脑里的阿肯柏氏核开始运作,让风险承受度猛踩油门,抢走前额叶皮质的理性主导权,于是,她一口气提高投资金额两倍。这,就是所谓的“赌资效应”,意思是当人们赚到钱后,会低估风险,拿出更多的钱投资。

荩过度自信效应

随着钱愈赚愈多,健兰开始把所有资金都集中到基金扣款账户,“我心想这辈子要赚钱,就靠这一波了。”阿肯柏氏核将贪婪油门踩到最底,健兰的心里产生过度乐观情绪,将所有的钱放在同一个篮子里。这就是所谓的“过度自信效应”,它会让投资人忘记风险,进而误判投资前景,身陷巨大风险。

荩处分效应

2007年7月底发生次贷风暴,健兰手上的基金开始出现亏损,恐惧的杏仁核慢慢现身,她急着卖出赚钱的基金,想落袋为安,但对于赔钱的基金,她反而像鸵鸟般视而不见,不愿见到实际的损失,卖掉获利标的、留下赔钱标的。这就是所谓的“处分效应”,它会打乱人们理性的投资组合,让篮子留着烂苹果。

荩沉没效应

等到股市一路下跌,亏损愈来愈大时,虽然理性告诉健兰应该要採取动作、执行停损了,但杏仁核的力量却愈来愈强,她心中充满悔恨,每天咒骂着:“我当初怎会用这么高价买进呢?”心中的魔鬼每天提醒她,当初买进的时间、成本。这就是所谓的“沉没效应”,让人们错失最佳的停损时机,无法保留资金实力,搭上未来反败为胜的列车。

荩蛇咬效应

2008年10月,当全球股市疯狂下跌,美股动不动以每天400、500点的幅度下挫时,杏仁核发挥极致力量,霸占住大脑,魔鬼说:“基金报酬都已经赔50%,不要再看了。”即使投资专家告诉健兰:“买点快到了,准备反败为胜吧!”但健兰却出现“蛇咬效应”,股市就像那条“草绳”般,让健兰只想远离它,错过了历史最佳买点。

2009年理财投资 专家提供20个诀窍


2008是百年难得一见的全球股灾年,投资人终其一生,或许只能遭遇一次。


至于2009年,投资人该如何配置个人资产,如何因应未来可能的波动,如何掌握稳健的获利机会,《美国商业周刊》整合了多位专家的意见,归纳出以下20点诀窍,虽然是美国的情况,不过,仍然值得供我们在2009年做投资理财的参考。

不要过度悲观

悲观的投资人都在问,此时是否应出清股票,等低档再买回。但是否有更低档呢?谁也说不准。但大多数人一旦持股杀在最低档,将来是很难追高买回来的。与其如此,不如调整悲观的情绪,不要再听信市场的危言耸听之词。

保有足够的

即使目前还有薪水可领,也应未雨绸缪。专家建议,每个成年人至少保留约6个月生活开支的现金。一旦周转不灵时,就有现金应急,无须贱卖股票。

专注投资美国

尽管美国是此次金融风暴的源头,近几年的股市表现也几乎是全球殿后。但今年以来,新兴国家股市的跌幅,远远超过MSCI全球指数43%的跌幅,此外,美元走强又使海外资产产生汇损,分散海外投资实在得不偿失。专家认为,在全球不景气的此时,美国仍是相对稳健的避风港。

不孤注一掷

一旦公司破产,单押各股的投资人将血本无归。专家建议,股票与固定收益的比例应该适度调配,股票也应适度分散在大型股与小型股、内需股与外销股之间。

节能退税纳入考虑

2009年美国联邦政府通过的节能退税法案重新启动。专家建议,明年房屋修缮应装置节能设施,每户最多可享500美元(约1700令吉)退税的好处。

资金持续投入401K退休金账户

在股市行情多头时,大多数人倾向积极投入退休金账户。但专家建议,其实在股市低档投入比在高档更有利,尤其在目前这种很差的行情中,尽量不要停止投资。

节约至上

如果现在每个月收支很难平衡,就没有资格谈论投资未来了。

依循既定策略不躁

按照原来所规划的模式操作,不要因市场巨幅波动,情绪受干扰而大幅度调整股票的投资组合。遵循长线的投资策略,不看每天的报纸消息,报酬率反而更好。

偿还高利率的负债

节省利息的支出,与提高投资报酬有异曲同工之妙。例如,偿还利率7%的车贷,其效果与取得7%的投资报酬率一样,只是现在要找个报酬率7%的投资标的比较困难。

不要放弃股票投资

专家告诫,从历史经验看,在景气低迷时投入股市的报酬率都是最高的。此时,将一定资产比例配置在股票,高报酬可期。

删减不必要的开支

专家建议,为避免花钱如流水,毫无节制,可以透过一些会计软体的协助,追踪自己的开支流向,以便删减不必要的开支。

不付出昂贵的管理成本

交易成本与手续费等管理成本,也要锱铢必较,有助于整体报酬率的提高。

尤其目前这种市况,报酬率往往仅1至2%,甚至更低,管理成本能省则省。

专家推荐,购买共同基金不妨透过Vanguard等手续费仅0.2%的低成本作业平台进行。

备妥个人的信用资料

未来可能零利率的情况下,房贷利率看跌,2009年将是转换为低利贷款的好时机。专家建议,应事先备妥个人每年的信用资料,以便转贷时使用。

拒绝羊群心态

奉行投资名言“别人恐惧我贪婪,别人贪婪我恐惧”的华伦巴菲特认为,要“跟着自己的思路走,不做未来会后悔的举措。”并建议客户,此时应将现金由安全的美国国库券转出,投资股票或债券市场。

拟定并落实资金预算与投资策略

资金预算设定后,支出金额将获控制,储蓄金额也可望增加。

拟定投资计划则使自己不落于情绪操作,尤其更不会在气氛不好的时刻杀到最低点。

不中断必要的保险

汽车、房屋与人寿保险等必要的保险不可中断,以防备最差情况发生。

审慎评估投资顾问

马多夫(Bernard Madoff)因诈欺500亿美元(1700亿令吉)被逮捕,更确立投资人不可迷信明星经理或理财顾问,也不可将鸡蛋全部放在一个篮子里的重要性。

专家建议,投资人要多做功课,对投资顾问的资格、证书、教育程度、经理费用、客户的申诉等细节也要钜细靡遗不放过,并可透过主管机关网页上的BrokerCheck功能检视。

不了解的不投资

此次全球金融危机,实肇因于投入太复杂的金融产品所致。一旦投资不了解的金融商品,通常以大赔收场居多。如果营业员推荐了个股,但又不能清楚解释为何买进时,通常不买为宜。

固定收益的投资也要审慎评估

债券投资经理人告诫,并非所有的债券都很安全,此外,也要确定券商或银行一旦倒闭,联邦存保公司是否赔付的问题。

风险暴露在可承受的范围之内

经过2008年股灾的教训,有人变的很保守,等待时机进场;有人则转趋积极,希望反败为胜。专家建议,投资人应衡量自身的风险承受度,在空头走势中不要过度扩充信用,以免伤痕累累,真正多头来临时无子弹可用。

2009年投资趋势大预言





接下来明年要怎么过?是大家不得不面对的问题,经过2008年的主跌段之后,2009年倾向末跌段的反覆打底,短线或许仍将持续下跌,不过仍须怀报希望,不如先订出几个指标,设定转佳的讯号,一路追踪,较具实益。


风险是金融操作最大的成本

安东尼波顿(Anthony Bolton),在几周前翻多,他认为,即使明年经济持续衰退,股市却能看到好表现,倘若你一直等经济到了底部才打算进场,恐怕会错过牛市的第一个波段。

(这与巴菲特在10月16日所说,你若要等知更鸟啼鸣,春天可能已结束,股市永远领先经济先落底,观念是一致的)。

有人说这是前所未见的金融危机,不过此次全球政府如此同步、积极、大手笔的联手介入给予支援,也是世所罕见,安东尼波顿相信,这样动作终究会发挥一些效果。

巴菲特也认为,政府为了抒解危机而採行的政策势必会引发通膨,进而加速现金账户实际价值下滑,手中持有现金及约当现金,其实是可怕的长期资产,几乎不生财且注定会贬值。

二、市场情绪,有多项指标已到了重回市场的临界值。

三、价值分析,现在股价已经跌到很低的位置。

近期百年一遇的金融危机观念,已经使得价值投资受到挑战,过去的历史统计图表也不再具有参考性,不过安东尼波顿却将历史数据摆在他看好的第一顺位,他表示,投资时要注意的事项很多,观察长期的历史纪录以及价格走势表,本来就不保证会让你赚大钱,但是会减少你赔钱的风险。

NBER是落后的权威机构

通常大熊市修正之后的大反弹,幅度都相当大,不过速度快又没有基本面支撑,倘若一昧的看大空,常常会错失良机,先设定观察指标以及转强点,并且密切追踪,胜率将可相对提高。

展望2009年的几个趋势结论:一、美国应该不是日本,消费力的弹性相当高。二、企业调整力大不同,已经有人在预估,09年美国将是失业性复苏。三、美国联储局站上第一线,取代银行的业务。

今年十一月份,美国国家经济研究局NBER宣布:美国经济进入衰退。国内各法人也都引用此权威性的报告,不过NBER从不预估何时会走出景气谷底,并且宣布衰退时间也都是落后的。

不过美国股市则是在NBER宣布后五个月就领先景气见底了。倘若以此类比,则美国景气在09年第三季落底,美股领先在09年第一季落底的机会应不小。

公认中国会领先走出不景气

中国是大家公认,将领先走出不景气的灯塔,观察焦点将在于国内生产总值结构扭转的速度,也就是内需上来的速度如何,其中,汽车的销售量将是重要观察指标,其次四兆人民币(约2兆令吉)的振兴方案落实的速度亦是观察重点。

中国收成股、内需建材股、通路股仍将是09年台股的重要主流股。现在大家将中国的外销看得很扁,不过就历史观察,越是不景气,大陆出口的产品卖得越好,因为越不景气,大家都要用越便宜的产品,只要中国能够暂停实施劳动合同法,中国的出口仍有机会止稳。

利率与汇率双率而言,利率向日、美看齐应是趋势,因此各国的公债回酬率将越来越低,因此股票、房地产的资产的价值,将会慢慢具吸引力,转折关键,就在于全球投资信心何时恢复。各国的高殖利率绩优股只要一跌深,应该就会有比较性投资买盘承接。

根据统计,也就是景气复苏二季之后,油价才会止跌转扬,倘若这是原物料的通性,因此,未来选股上,应该先锁定在产业下游的族群上。

黄金只算是避险工具,佔总资产比重不宜超过15%,房地产,通常落后股市一年左右,2009年必需提防房市正式重挫。

找寻金丝雀

以前矿工下矿坑採矿,为了规避瓦斯外泄风险,会带着金丝雀下去,空气一有问题,金丝雀就会先出状况,金丝雀成了风控指标。

现在可以倒过来用,此时再大力看空已经算是老梗,因为经过一年的下跌,大家都已大幅增加现金部位,观察金丝雀的变化,才具前瞻性,不妨先找出景气、各产业的重要领先指标,并且先设定未来转好时的讯号,密切追踪其变化,才能掌握先机。

例如:

一、根据中小企业信贷基金观察。

二、倘若未来各国银行的放款余额增加,似乎就是政策作多开始有乘数效果的时候了。

三、美国房屋存货消化月数若能跌破九个月,将是第一个利多,若能回到六个月以下,将是大利多。

四、未来倘若全球任何一处的股市,突然反弹五成以上,则巴菲特与安东尼波顿所期待的牛市一期,就可能就此展开。

听听CEO怎么说2009年


2008年充满动荡,天灾人祸之、金融海啸、企业倒闭、经济衰退、股市大挫……,冲击力至今仍未有停止的迹象。


金融风暴已经严重打击全球的未来展望,大马也难以避免的受到波及。

在2009年,大马的前路布满荆棘,但是,很多本地大企业还是有信心渡过重重难关。

多家著名企业以及行业龙头,分享2009年的展望和期许,它们包括了大众银行(PbBank,1295,主板金融股)、实达建筑(SPSetia,8664,主板产业股)、顶级手套(TopGlov,7113,主板工业产品股)、马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股),以及雀巢(Nestle,4707,主板消费产品股)。

充满挑战的一年

在金融风暴、经济衰退和股市不稳的情况下,经济学家皆预测,全球经济将会在今年进一步恶化,威胁着大马的经济发展,导致大马各个领域可能显著放缓,在2010年才有望复苏。

拉昔胡申研究经济学家白文春认为,全球经济进入严重的衰退期及全球金融危机升温,将导致全球经济进一步恶化,并预测大马今年的经济增长将从2008年的5.3%挫跌至1.5%。

但他表示,主要经济体积极且快速的政策实施,有助防止全球经济陷入持久的放缓状况中。

因此,他相信全球经济放缓可能会维持18个月左右,并会于2010年开始复苏。

世界银行也预测,今年全球经济增长的预测将放缓至0.9%(2008年的经济增长预测为2.5%)。

此外,侨丰研究主管吴保云在一项《2009年投资策略》报告指出,随着全球消费者信心和开销下滑,将减少全球对大马电子产品出口的需求,并预期内需将会于明年上半年严重萎缩,造成明年上半年将会是大马企业的艰难时期。

他也指出,随着制造产品需求减少,国内的制造业投资批准也会随之下滑,对大马的海外直接投资带来莫大影响,尤其是来自澳洲、美国、日本、法国和德国的投资者,并预见失业率会激增4%,尤其是在制造和服务领域。

与此同时,联昌国际投资研究经济学家李兴裕指出,在艰巨的外围状况及本地需求放缓的双面夹攻下,大马在今年会继续丧失成长动力,预料经济增长会下滑至3.0%,并在2010年回弹至4.5%。

他预料,电器产品需求放缓及原产品价格下滑,将导致2009年出口萎缩3.0%,也意味着本地需求成为经济的支柱,以抵销外围因素疲弱的不利因素。他预测本地需求增长将从今年的7.3%走软至4.2%。

银行领域 大众银行主席丹斯里郑鸿标博士 本地银行业将继续稳健增长

大马银行领域一致认同,在全球化效应下,由金融风暴衍生而起的经济放缓,将造成金融领域的营业额和资产价值下滑,但大马金融领域的架构在历经1997年金融风暴后已经变得更加稳健,因此本地银行领域将会继续稳健增长。

大众银行执行主席丹斯里郑鸿标向《南洋商报》表示,今年将会是一个充满挑战的一年,但该集团已经采取措施来维持其信贷素质,以及加强业务发展,以确保明年的盈利继续稳健增长。

“在经济不明朗的环境里,对银行领域来说必定是个挑战,包括了大众银行,业者必须设法有效的监督信贷素质,避免资产素质出现严重的恶化。”

他也表示,尽管面对充满挑战的经济情况,但由于大众银行集团预期将会于明年维持贷款增长,以及偏低且稳定的呆账和贷款亏损准备金,因此,集团预料将会于明年继续维持稳健增长。

另外,郑鸿标也透露,大众银行集团在国内外业务的主要营运策略将会继续维持不变。

“大众银行将会继续采取内部增长策略,来扩展消费融资和中小企业商业借贷的市占率,以及加强企业银行服务、财政营运和回教银行业务。”

由于大众银行拥有庞大的分行网络以及强势的品牌,该集团将继续专注发展零售和批发存款,以及其他收费活动,例如单位信托基金的销量、汇款服务、信用卡业务,以及架构存款等。

航空领域 马航总执行长拿督斯里依德利斯 冀达致5星级航空公司目标

随着全球经济放缓,以及“东协领空开放”所带来的竞争力,已经严重影响本地航空领域的盈利展望。

马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)总执行长拿督斯里依德利斯表示,该集团明年面对最大的挑战是全球经济放缓将导致搭客量和货运量下滑。

他指出,根据国家航空运输协会的预测,亚太区航空公司的亏损将会从2008年的5亿美元(约17亿1500万令吉)加倍至2009年的11亿美元(约37亿7300万令吉)。

对于大马能否安然度过这次金融风暴?他说:“全球的日子将会充满荆棘。以全球经济来看,我预料会出现更多的政府干预,而非自由市场企业,相信也会出现更多的破产现象。目前的金融模式已损坏,需要2至3年的时间来打造全新的金融模式。而大马今年的经济将会受到类似影响而写下更低的成长,不过我有信心大马经济将会维持稳健。”

此外,为了维持稳健性,马航将持续专注在第二阶段的改革计划,该公司冀望尽快达到五星级航空公司的目标,因为该公司相信此改革计划能够帮助马航对抗此挑战时期。

“我们的目标是成为国际五星级航空公司,意味着我们将会以最合理的价格,提供高品质产品及服务,我们放眼成为航空领域的丰田(Toyota)。”

手套领域 顶级手套主席丹斯里林伟才博士 能源乳胶价格波动挑战大

随着全球保健和卫生意识抬头,促使手套领域是保健领域的必需品,因此,世界最大的手套制造商——顶级手套认为,全球经济衰退对于该集团的影响微乎其微,并对前景维持乐观看法。

顶级手套主席丹斯里林伟才博士说:“手套是保健领域的必需品,因此,在经济衰退时,所遭受的冲击并不大。晋为全世界最大的手套生产商,公司落实综合性与一致性的政策,即以低成本生产高素质的产品。”

林伟才指出,普遍上,全球对手套领域的需求,预估每年增长8%至10%或1230亿个,尤其是来自传统式的医疗市场的高需求所致。此外,顶级手套具有强稳的资产负债表、低负债率,有望让该公司应对全球金融的动荡时期。

此外,林伟才相信,尽管全球的经济放缓,但是政府推出的多项举措,将让我国有能力达到3.5%的经济增长预测,并在18至24个月内复苏。

顶级手套在今年将继续注重以低成本来生产高质量的产品,并着重公司内部成长和依据市场的需求来提高旗下的产能。

另外,他也指出,该集团在今年最大的挑战是能源资源价格、不稳定的乳胶价格以及受到金融机构冲击的客户群。尽管如此,顶级手套仍然对集团的前景维持乐观的看法。

产业领域 实达建筑总执行长丹斯里刘启盛 大马产业领域仍然乐观

虽然今年经济展望充满挑战,但是大马产业领域还是乐观看待本地产业市场。他们认为,由于本地产业仍是区域内最便宜的,让本地产业继续拥有竞争力。此外,他们也认为,产业市场还是有很大的需求。

而实达建筑总执行长丹斯里刘启盛表示,2009年及未来无疑我国的产业领域将充满挑战,但是他相信实达建筑的基础将有助于其渡过阴霾。

他指出,实达建筑曾于97年亚洲金融风暴时经历艰难时刻,而且也领悟就算是危机也存在商机。

“因此,我们开始从单一的产品品牌-Setia,扩展至5项主要的产品既Setia、Duta、Sky Residences、Eco及Commercial。简单来说,我们拥有广阔的产品种类可以抵挡任何窘境。”

他也认为,未来一年,吉隆坡城中城的地区的高档住宅产业将面对一些挑战尤其回酬方面。无论如何,我国的游资仍然充裕而且高档产业的需求时时都存在。但是,其他因素如时间及产品的价值都非常重要,能够符合市场需求及为产品制造价值的发展商就能够脱颖而出。

“因此,我们不断努力为产品制造价值,同时也加速建设我们所发展城镇内的基本建设及便利设施,以为客户带来更大的价值。”

他继说,全球目前笼罩在不明朗的阴影之下,无疑将对商业环境及本地经济带来影响,马来西亚也无法幸免。因此,短期至中期内必须更精明的采取更具弹性商业模式,即是专注在能够带来稳定收入增长的城镇发展工程。

此外,该公司希望,在2009财年达到11亿令吉的销售目标,并期望在今年财年至少维持2008财年约2亿1300万令吉的净利水平。

消费领域 雀巢董事经理苏利文奥卡罗 餐饮领域将维持稳健

虽然大马经济研究院的消费信心指标下滑23%,显示经济放缓造成消费者开销的疲弱。但市场相信,消费者不会停止购买食品,也许仅是转移目标至廉价食品,因此预料餐饮领域将维持稳健。

雀巢(Nestle,4707,主板消费产品股)董事经理苏利文奥卡罗表示,尽管成本持续攀高已经对很多公司,尤其是饮食工业的营业额和盈利带来压力,但是从雀巢今年第三季的表现来看,雀巢还是维持双位数增长。

对于2009年将会面对的挑战,他说:“整体而言,饮食工业自2007年开始已经面对原料成本高涨的压力。尽管一些主要原产品价格已经在今年初回软,但是这些原产品价格还是比2007年初高,而这也是导致通货膨胀率持续攀高的原因。”

另外,由于雀巢持续努力提供健康和营养的解决方案,以及增值产品,以迎合消费者的需求,促使雀巢在首九个月内的营业额,已较去年同期剧增10.7%。而回教认证食品的出口也激增24%,并为雀巢总营业额带来22.5%的贡献。 但是,雀巢将会在未来继续极力改善目前消费信心疲弱的情形,以及维持现有的营运策略,来加强公司盈利赚幅。

种植业 破晓前的黑暗


种植业目前正面临一场低潮,未来3至6个月的前路颠簸,政府和有关公司虽然采取各项措施,但由于实施的时间受到展延。因此收效料不大;可是曙光就在风雨后,渡过低潮后种植业前景可期,分析员虽将原棕油价格从2300令吉调低至2175令吉,但原棕油股项被卖压困扰,却为投资者提供买入机会,分析员因此将种植业整体评级从“中和”调高至“增持”。


今年8月,原棕油价格跌至低点,之后每日都处在低迷走势之中。

但益资利投资研究相信,当价格回跌至每公吨1500令吉的价位时便接近谷底,是回升的时机。

过去10年原棕油的平均价格为每公吨1695令吉;但1998年至2003年,维持在每公吨1447令吉的水平;从2003年到目前的价格,平均为每公吨1992令吉。

益资利投资研究的分析员表示:“过去数据显示,每公吨1500令吉的水平将维持24个月,成为原棕油价格的支撑水平。然而,由于营运成本已经增加,原棕油价格之前又因原产品价格旋风而高涨,再加上美元和原油之间的关系减弱,因此原棕油基本面也更改。”

其实,根据过去的周期,目前的价格可能已经进入5年一次的“减弱期”,但由于基本面已经更改,因此原棕油价格有望在未来几个月找到新高点进行交易。

价格回弹 股市受益

益资利投资研究计算后发现,原棕油价格和大豆油期货价格两者关系密切,但和原油的关系却较弱。

益资利投资研究分析员表示:“相比原棕油,大豆油和原油的关系系数比较强,原棕油的产量及出口,都比大豆油多出许多。原油和原棕油的关系已经减少了,由于特质和用途不同,因此关系也不强。”

此外,除了森那美(Sime,4197,主板贸服股),股票和原棕油价格的关系非常密切。分析员透露,一般财团-如森那美和原棕油价格的关系比较疏离。

原棕油价格目前已开始回弹,与它关系密切的股票市场料有望腾飞。分析员说:“原棕油拥有价格优势,当大豆的需求走低之际,其替代效益已渐渐提高。”

库存料高点回跌

种植领域在来临的6个月,将面对库存因季节性而走低的格局。

该领域即将来到产量周期的顶峰,产量及库存都会逐渐收窄。虽然如此,这一次的产量周期顶峰,因为2001年至2002年的大量植树,已经比过去更强、更久。

“产量现在虽维持在高水平,却仍不及04年9月及06年9月的水平高,当时鲜果炸串的产量达每公顷197公吨;10月份的产量为每公顷190万吨。”

预料整体领域在2008年全年的产量,为1750万公吨,这比2007年的产量高出11%。

然而,最新公布的数据却显示,大马原棕油库存在11月上扬8.34%,写下新记录,预料产量及出口增长率将进一步放缓。

根据大马棕油局的数据显示,11月杪的棕油库存从10月份的209万1353公吨,增加至226万5754吨。

棕油价走势还看中国

根据马来西亚船运调查机构SGS的调查显示,船务在11月首25天已增加了15%,到中国(上扬27.4%)及巴基斯坦的船只(上扬29%)增加,都是背后的主要功臣。

出口船只的上扬,让人对12月份的出口数据有所期待,相信会迎来上升趋势。

拖欠合约加剧

但分析员透露,近期原棕油价格下滑,投资者期待更好的价格,导致出口滑落。同时,拖欠合约也进一步加剧原棕油价格走低。当然,次贷风暴之后,业者也更难为进口索取信用证,对价格带来另一轮挑战。

虽然如此,面对全球经济走软阴影笼罩的大马出口业,还是有可能在2008年取得11.6%的按年增长。

根据最新的数据,出口至印度、巴基斯坦及美国已明显上扬,今年对美国的出口增加24.1%;对印度的出口也有46%的复苏迹象;欧盟国家的出口因为环境课题走软,中国的出口的按年增长表现也显得平平无奇。

虽然一些国家的出口有增加的迹象,但原棕油的复苏情况,还是牢牢紧附中国经济走势。

分析员说,中国经济即使软着陆也将打击我国的原棕油出口,原棕油价格将被拖低,2009年首季将呈现疲弱,在完全回弹之前还会面对更多的下滑空间。

中国需求减缓

益资利投资研究分析员说,中国进口的食用油在过去几年推动整体领域发展,因此,若中国硬着陆,原棕油就会进一步下滑;即使软着陆也会影响需求,但可缓冲产量下跌的问题。

“出口的强劲周期在第三季告一段落,在第四季之后会剧烈下滑,因此,我们对未来半年的出口表现非常担忧。”

中国放缓拖累需求

“预料中国的经济增长会放缓,根据中国国内生产总值对原棕油价格的比例,当地的经济状况将会拖累原棕油价格。”

2008年第四季的价格将平均每公吨企在1620令吉,远低于2008年第三年季的2764令吉,料2009年首季的原棕油价格在获得全面复苏之际,会进一步下滑。

虽然经历许多“浩劫”,但棕油价格在11月已稍微企稳,甚至复苏了10.4%,平均落在每公吨1528令吉。

但另一方面,由于原棕油价格走软,因此在中国经济放缓之际,许多业者将从大豆油转而使用原棕油,这也能缓冲当地原棕油进口在第三季走软的情况。

经济放缓影响反弹

益资利投资研究透露,由于原棕油产量高于预期,信贷危机导致出口不济,影响原棕油价格反弹速度,该行因此将2009年原棕油的平均价格从之前2300令吉的预测,调低至2175令吉,

“我们相信原棕油价格将在明年下半年复苏,因此维持2010年2300令吉的预测。”

在肥料成本方面,该行维持每公吨1100令吉至1300令吉的预测,并预测肥料价格会在2009年开始走低。

该行以现金流量模式做计算后发现,大部分种植公司的目标价格都会被下调,但亚地种植却除外。

“这是因为这家公司积极在印尼植树,在完成过后能将种植面积增加50%。”

虽然该行调低2009年的盈利预测,但却透露大部分的种植股项都以,比目标价格低的折价交易。

“我们相信原棕油价格会获得改善,因此在来临几个月将是收成的季节,我们持续对种植领域开出‘增持’评级。”

政府目前采取的一些举措,有助加快回弹的过程,这些措施包括:

生物燃油法令

大马预料B5生物柴油的法令,将把原棕油的库存在2010年以前减少至550万公吨,矢志将生物燃油领域在2010年以前,提高到150万公吨,掺杂的水平从2.5%提高至5%。

重新栽种政策

大马及印尼正努力执行重新栽种的政策,并为旗下的公司提供重新栽种的补贴。

在马来西亚,重新栽种面积大过25年的地段,政府每一公顷将给予1000令吉的奖掖。欲重新种植的地段有20万公顷,当完成之后,在2009年之前最多能生产60万公吨的原棕油。

印尼也正朝这一方向努力,希望在2009年重新种上5万公吨的作物。

降低肥料价格

政府有意将肥料价格降低15%,以减轻种植公司的赚幅压力。

但领域业者却投诉,削减幅度并不足够,因为肥料价格下跌的幅度已超过15%。

6家种植公司共同探讨问题

由于政府削减的幅度不高,因此6家公司已经合作探讨如何将肥料成本降低的问题,以保障本身赚幅。

讨论的措施,包括了规定肥料的使用,短期内暂停购买肥料,以对肥料供应商施加压力。