Blog Research: TA Enterprise Berhad

Founder :Datuk Tony Tiah Thee Kian & Datin Tan Kuay Fong

Core Business:

1)financial services

-Securities

-Futures and Derivatives
-Credit and Lending

-Unit Trust

2)Property Development & Hospitality (http://www.taproperties.com.my/)

Current Project

-Idaman Residence, Located in the heart of Kuala Lumpur’s Golden Triangle and KLCC

-Damansara Idaman & Idaman Villa, Located adjacent to the well-established Tropicana Golf and Country Resort, Ara Damansara and Bandar Utama.

Future Project

-Commercial Development @ Sri Damansara (48 acres )

-Commercial Development @ Bukit Bintang (3-acre prime location in the Golden Triangle ), encompass 3 towers of modern contemporary luxury serviced residences with a lifestyle inspired retail podium.

-Mixed Development @ KLCC (2.3 arces), 2 iconic towers with a proposed 6-star hotel, luxury residences and a high-end retail podium.

-Residential Development @ U-Thant,( 1.4 acres of Freehold low rise boutique residences )

The company will inject the property arm into TA Global which expected to be listed in Bursa Malaysia in November. The company has bouught 3 hotel in this year which includes Westin hotel in Australia, Swissotel Merchant Court Hotel in Singapore and Coast Whistler in Canada.

After included such international property, total asset value of TA Global will worth 2.4 billion and become the sixth biggest property player in Malaysia.

The company have a lot of valuable land in Klang Valley including a few acre in golden triangle K.L.

Future Gross Development Value worth 6 billion which can make the company rush until 2012.

Landbank:

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-Expected

REVENUE 204,066/154,533/203,445/283,284/312,756/354,520/546,706/535,426/194,612

Net Profit 10,413/15,805/116,294/107,507/80,348/133,063/224,213/91,913/62,307

EPS 0.0078/0.012/0.09/0.08/0.06/0.1/0.16/0.06/0.042/0.1 (Expected)

NTA 1.14/1.17/1.27/1.34/1.36/1.42/1.51/1.46/1.46

ROE 0.60%/1%/7%/5.90%/4.40%/7.04%/10.60%/4.10%/6.80% (Expected)

PE 97.4359/45/12.11111/10.75/11.16667/8.8/7.875/10.33333 /14.5

Research House:

ECM Libra:“The disposal of assets to TA Global will unlock RM900 million value at TAE’s company level. However, for accounting purposes, this will not be reflected at group level. On a pro-forma basis, value enhancement to its book value per share is 53 sen while pro-forma book value per share is RM1.98,”

Hwang DBS vickers:We think investors should Buy TAE to receive the dividend in specie of TA Global’s shares given its prime land bank and large marketcapitalisation. We reiterate our Buy rating and price targetof RM2.10 (ex basis) which is based on our SOP value.

Based on the research above, finds that TA Global have a huge potential growth in the future since the valuable lankbank enable the company rush until 2012, and the company has announced will double its hotel acquire in the coming year. Furthermore, the company will build another two hotel in K.L which can develop their own brand hotel. The company is expected to be the top 5 property player in 5 year.The company is profitable every year. Although the company is impacted by economic crisis which decline in profit but in the time of economy recovering, it will generate higher profit from brokerage and property in coming quarter. Hence, in my view it is worth to invest in medium term even long term.

厌恶亏损

特沃斯基曾作出以下预测：

“人类对于追求快乐有这样一个特质，他们总是比较容易对悲观的事情起反应...试想想你今天过得怎样？然后想先你如何能感觉得更好...（你会发现）让你感觉良好的事情不多，但让你觉得糟糕的事却是无限的。”

这个理论告诉我们，当我们拥有选择时，我们会考虑每一个选择带来的影响，我们会有额外的收获，还是面对比现况更糟的局面？当然，我们喜欢前者，挽救生命总比失去来的更好。克赫曼和特沃斯基在试验中发现，失去的感受和得到的喜悦，对内心的影响并不平等，就算失落和喜悦一样多，失去带来的伤害却比较大。

他透过以下实验，证明了这个理论：

A组和B组各获得两个问题

问题A：
除了原本该有的之外，你还获得1000元。现在，你必须决定，要稳拿500元，还是赌一把，赢的几率只有50%，所以你可能获得1000元，或者一无所有。

问题B：
你除了得到原本该有的，还获得了2000元。你现在要决定，要稳输500元，还是以50：50的几率赌一把，失去1000元。两个选择其实都可能让你额外获得1500元。若以逻辑的方式计算，两个选择其实并无差异。但是在问题A中，有84%的人选择稳拿500元，其余15%放手一搏；然而在问题B中，31%的人选择稳输，69%的人愿意搏一搏。还记得上周有关疾病的问题吗？计划A：有200人一定会得救；计划B:600人同时获救，但成功机会只有0.33；计划C：400人肯定死亡；计划D：600人死亡的比例为0.67。

获利总比损失更开心

大部分人都会选择“肯定”的一方，但是当问题以“失去”的方式表达时，他们却甘于冒险。因此，当面对“稳赢”的情况时，投资者选择避开风险；但面对“稳输”时，却变成冒险者。另外，失去带来的压力，比获利带来的愉悦度的冲击更大。正因如此，一些经济学家认为，投资者面对一块钱损失所受到的打击，会比获得1块钱得到的快乐高出一倍。

现实生活中，还有许多展现我们对负面问题的敏感度大于正面的事项。在学校回答是非题时，答对将获得分数，答错则扣分。为避免失败带来的伤痛，学生会努力的准备考试。

同样的，投资者在获利时总比面对损失更开心，但“证券化”的损失，却比真正面对的损失更让人舒服。比如，你需要脱售股票时，有两个选择：股票A，是一只稳赚的股票，至今已让你获利约20%，股票B则是一般的股票，导致你损失20%。你，会选择哪一个？大部分的投资者都会选择Ａ。

不愿脱售时面对损失

投资者大多不愿意在脱售时面对损失。这就是“厌恶损失理论”中的经典行为。他们不愿放弃能获利的机会，就算急需用钱，也会脱售稳赚钱的那只。

他们很有信心，股价会复苏，并回到“中和”水平，这种想法造成的投资失利，往往比熊市的伤害更大。因此，了解厌恶损失理论对管理投资很有帮助。

对于投资经理，他们了解到投资者会专注在获利，而非损失，或是整体情况。

这种情况，只会造成更大的损失，而且之后衍生出来的伤害会比之前更大，甚至造成更大的投资风险，及更多不理智的投资决定。

转帖自<南洋商报>

后知后觉

今早打开电脑，准时看看我国股市的开市情况。由于道琼斯工业指数涨破10,000点并站稳，没有出现立刻的回调情况，预计区域股市将会迈入长期缓步上升的阶段。近日看到一些部落客写到短期内将不会买进任何股票，因为大家都认为市场太狂热了，大家都太乐观了，这是好的现象，显示还是有投资者害怕出现重大回调而在场外观望，只敢卖不敢买。本部落的立场，短期超买的回调肯定会出现，但真正很大程度的回调不太可能，就因为还有投资者拥有惧怕的心理，真正回调的迹象应该是大家集体认为股市太容易赚钱了，今天买明天赚，不断有新的投资者涌入。但一切理论归理论，还是要看美国与中国股市的表现、各国应对的货币政策与财政政策的进展。

话说回来，笔者想说的后知后觉，是看到今早一开市，便有大批投资者涌入购买达企业，因为该公司昨天正式向交易所发表文告指出，公司将派发每拥有5股达企业的投资者获得3股达全球及3股优先股。奇怪的是，这消息早已不是消息，该公司的MD陈桂芳，早就向公众宣布此计划，但这一个月以来，都没有大批投资者买入的迹象，反而在今早才追高买高，是很多投资者没有留意新闻呢？仰或是喜欢追高杀低的刺激感呢？很难明白。这更引起笔者想深入研究该公司的兴趣。

Blog Research : Eastern and Oriental Berhad

The Eastern and Oriental brand, through the heritage Eastern and Oriental Hotel, carries the hallmark of timeless elegance, luxury, history and richness in tradition.This reputation is nurtured within the Eastern and Oriental Group, which focuses on three core business activities; namely Hospitality and Lifestyle, Property Development and Property Investment. Its business ventures are strongly supported by an established Eastern and Oriental brand capital.

Eastern and Oriental Berhad

---Eastern and Oriental Property Development Berhad

---Eastern and Oriental Hotel--establishment by the Sarkies Brothers in 1885

---Lone Pine Hotel--The first hotel built along Penang Island’s in 1948

---food and beverage --The Delicious Group

Eastern and Oriental Property Development Berhad

Past Project-

-Sri Se-Ekar

-202 Desa Cahaya

-Kampung Warisan

-Dua Residency-Completed in April 2007

-Seventy Damansara-Completed in January 2006

-Idamansara-Completed in June 2007

Current Project:

-St Mary Residences

Centrally located ,Chic Metro Living , 1.2-acre ‘Central Park’,2-storey Retail Annexe.

-Seri Tanjung Pinang

Semi-D Homes
THE SUITES AT WATERSIDE – LUXURY SERVICE APARTMENTS

Marina and retail at Waterside , Condominiums,Commercial ,Recreational park ,Multi-Islands

REVENUE('000) Net Profit('000) EPS
2001Yr 79,398.00 8,779.00

2002Yr 91,156.00 24,338.00 -0.11
2003Yr 33,449.00 32,269.00 -0.14

2004Yr 117,882.00 20,553.00 0.09

2005Yr 21,130.00 15,341.00 0.07

2006Yr 270,301.00 23,058.00 0.1
2007Yr 518,444.00 61,178.00 0.15
2008Yr 516,399.00 128,854.00 0.24
2009Yr 304,449.00 37,276.00 -0.06
2010Q1 0.007

Analysis:The Company

**Turning Profit in financial 2010 1Quarter with EPS 0.007

**will launch more than 4billion worth project in future 2-4 years at Klang Valley and Penang.

**Own 1483 acres land in K.L and Penang.

**Unbilled sales of RM310 million, should reap pre-tax profit margins of 25 per cent and this will be booked over the next two to three years.

**St Mary Residences with good sales results.The launches include the Jalan Conlay condos with a GDV of RM800 million and the commercial building next to St. Mary Residences, situated in the heart of the Golden Triangle, with a GDV of RM500 million.

**Seri Tanjung Penang 1000 acres land for current and future development. Locate at Strategic growth area with high potential development in future, a comprehensive mixed development township located 5km northwest of George Town and adjacent to Gurney Drive. The project will generate profit in coming financial year together take advantage of value appreciation of land in the area.

**Company has launched 33 link houses in Seri Tanjung Penang priced from RM1.1 million upwards, which were snapped up within hours.Next launch 33 units of marina serviced apartments valued at more than RM30 million.The biggest launch of the year will be condominiums with RM1.8 billion gross development value (GDV) in total.

CIMB Research:The bottom line of Eastern and Oriental Berhad should return to the black in 2010 and jump 66 per cent in 2011 and 57 per cent in 2012

Target Price MYR 2.18

**For me, very confident with the land value of Penang Island especially those seaside area, the land value should be appreciate significantly in future 10-15 years. Eastern and Oriental Berhad owns a lot of land in Penang. If you are searching for high potential growth stock, seeking for long term investment, this counter may be a good choice.

The Edge Malaysia’s Top Property Developers Awards 2009

The awards rank property developers in the country from the consumer’s perspective and developers were judged on both their quantitative (shareholders’ funds, group pre-tax profit, revenue, gearing and cash plus cash equivalents) and qualitative (product quality, innovation and creativity, value creation for buyers, image and expertise) attributes.

1)Sime Darby Property Bhd (SDP) ---Ara Damansara, Putra Heights and Bukit Jelutong...
2)S P Setia Bhd---Setia Alam, Setia Eco Park
3)SUNWAY CITY BHD---Sunway
4)IGB Corp Bhd---Mid Valley City
5) Island & Peninsular Sdn Bhd (I&P)
6) IOI PROPERTIES BHD
7)BANDAR RAYA DEVELOPMENTS BHD
8)EASTERN & ORIENTAL BHD
9)SUNRISE BHD ---Mont’Kiara
10)Bandar Utama City Corp Sdn Bhd ---Bandar Utama

投资理念：做股票如找金矿

离市场远一点，把复杂的问题简单化

其实投资的关键是要事先明确目标，要按照之前的策略来做。有的散户老想在突破的时候买进去，连专业人士都看得不是那么准，你凭什么做到呢？除非是内幕交易。


上海混沌投资有限公司董事长、上海混沌道然资产管理有限公司投资决策委员会主席葛卫东
分享了他的投资历程和理念:

不管投资股票还是期货都是个风格问题，我们的风格是追求稳定成长。我感觉做股票和做期货还是有区别的，做股票其实是找金矿的思路。经常有朋友因为追涨杀跌而踏空，我给他们的建议是思维可以离市场远一点，把复杂的问题简单化。我觉得投资的真谛就是看稳不稳定，巴菲特每年都盈利，前面高的时候也不过每年27%～28%，这几年的回报更不用说了，只有百分之十几，非常低了，但是他为什么这么牛？有两个原因：一个是他知道复利，只要不赔钱，每年20%，世界上就没人能超过他；第二，他把风险控制得很低，他持有很多保险股，他的资金量非常庞大的，他是用很多的钱去抓那些他认为很确定的投资机会，所以他才能做成。　　但普通投资者究竟懂不懂复利？懂，但涨了30%，心跳加快了，可能就控制不住自己了。我做市场这么多年，对投资心理一直很感兴趣，散户为什么赔钱，主要还是不能克服贪婪和恐惧这两大人性的弱点。　　其实投资的关键是要事先明确目标，要按照之前的策略来做。往往人在达到这个目标之后还不满意，这样就容易受伤，我自己以前也有这样的经历，出错的时候往往都是踌躇满志的时候。所以说一个目标定下来，就要去除一切杂念，这是非常辩证的。散户和比较专业的投资者的区别就是，专业的投资者会对宏观经济、行业、企业有个基本判断，在实现了阶段性的目标之后，他会每隔一段时间去企业看一下，中间的不管了，他是不会去做波段的。要做到这一点，必须心态平和；其次就是你对这个结果确不确定。把复杂的问题简单化，思维要离市场够远。

LCL to bid for more jobs in Abu Dhabi

It shifts focus after slowdown in Dubai construction sector

DUBAI: LCL Corp Bhd will shift its focus to bid for more interior fit-out (IFO) contracts in cash-rich Abu Dhabi, after the completion of IFO jobs in major projects like Atlantis The Palm Hotel, Dubai Metro System, Dubai Mall and Dubai Marina Hotel in Dubai, said group managing director Datuk Low Chin Meng.

Given the current slowdown in the construction sector in Dubai, he said: “LCL does not want to miss out on the opportunities in Abu Dhabi’s bustling construction sector.”

“LCL will aggressively bid for IFO projects in Abu Dhabi particularly in government-funded projects such as hospitals, universities and clinics,” Low told a group of Malaysian journalists visiting LCL’s existing projects in Dubai and potential projects in Abu Dhabi as well as some top Malaysian government officials based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The group will also be looking at setting up strategic partnerships with Malaysian construction and property companies as well as Middle Eastern groups with investments in UAE and other countries in the Gulf region.

Unlike the tight liquidity situation in Dubai following the global economic downturn, Abu Dhabi is actively forging ahead with mega projects such as commercial and residential buildings, roads, airport and rail systems estimated to be worth a whopping US$208bil.

The top 10 construction projects in Abu Dhabi include the US$40bil Khalifa City, which is similar to Malaysia’s Putrajaya, the US$39bil Yas Island tourist development, Burooj Properties’ US$24bil real estate community project and Saadiyat Island’s offshore development worth US$28bil.

There is also the US$22bil Masdar City, the world’s first zero-carbon, zero-waste city, the US$18.5bil mixed hospitality development Al-Raha Beach Complex, the US$7.5bil Al Reem Island mixed development and US$3bil Abu Dhabi Light Rail Project and a MGM Grand Hotel.

On the status of LCL’s IFO projects in Dubai, Low said: “We hope to complete most of our existing projects before year-end and are also in the process of recovering our claims and entitlements from property developers in Dubai estimated at not less than RM200mil.
“We have a strong case to make these claims and expect these claims to materialise in the next eight to 10 months. This will lead to a substantial reduction in our high borrowings currently.”

LCL has seen three consecutive quarters of losses.
For the second quarter ended June 30, it posted a net loss of RM18.1mil on revenue of RM105.6mil.

Low believes LCL will be looking at a better second half and hopefully a stronger fourth quarter to stay in the black this fiscal year.

Although LCL is consolidating its business in Dubai, he is confident that recovery in the emirate’s construction sector will likely take place next year.

According to the latest data by Dubai-based Real Estate Regulatory Agency, almost three-quarter of property development in Dubai have made construction progress despite the slowdown.
Of 552 projects, more than 72% showed some construction progress, while 17% were “stalled” and 11% “delayed.”

Jones Lang LaSalle, the world’s leading real estate investment and advisory firm, late last month said Dubai and Abu Dhabi were among the best positioned to attract long-term investment to their real estate markets over the next two to three years, noting that Dubai had made “considerable progress” towards recovery since last year.

The positive views on Dubai and Abu Dhabi are shared by Malaysian Ambassador to UAE Datuk Yahaya Abdul Jabar, Dubai-based Matrade senior trade commissioner Dzulkifli Mahmud and Export-Import Bank of Malaysia Bhd (Exim Bank) managing director Mohd Fauzi Rahmat.
Dzulkifli said UAE was Malaysia’s largest export market in the Middle East with exports worth RM12.4bil posted in 2009 from RM2.93bil in 2008.
Malaysia’s major exports to UAE include jewellery, electronic and electrical products and palm oil.
“Malaysian companies are well regarded in Dubai as having good reputation in terms of their on-track delivery and good quality products,” he said.

Fauzi said Exim Bank had been assisting Malaysian companies seeking facilities to undertake investments in the Middle East and African countries.

“To date, 10% of Exim Bank’s business is in the Middle East. So far, the bank has approved some RM365mil facility for this market,” he said.

Yahaya commended LCL’s performance in Dubai amid the tight credit situation there.
He said the company had set the benchmark for Malaysian companies operating in Dubai.